macrocephalopod

Ok so: we check prices in a window (say 30min or 2hours) around the moment at which dem senate win is "announced" (or above certain proba). That's how we (hope to) "identify" the impact of shocks.

...um what. This was specifically to respond to your question "why did tech moon today?" my answer then and now is basically the expectation of looser fiscal policy and a weakened dollar/ZIRP leading to higher multiples + investor nervousness looking for a flight to safety.

I see, I though your answer was the dem senate. Ok, that's a plausible story (i.e., well constructed QED with reverse-engineering logic)

well yeah, it is also related to the Dem senate. These policies I mentioned only worked with a Dem senate, since the Republicans are about to remember the debt exists.

So why today and not yesterday or tomorrow? we knew the senate by early jan

Dem senate story => tech up today does not fly at all as an explanation. Just makes no sense whatsoever wrt timing. Risk aversion/flight to safety story also does not fly - tech would be down on a big risk off move!

Big tech is up considerably more than small cap tech.

Is that an argument that this is a “flight to safety” rally? Never seen SPX up 1.37%+ on a risk off day before.