Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?
    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

Tweets

macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list

    Under 100 characters, optional
    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      Ok so: we check prices in a window (say 30min or 2hours) around the moment at which dem senate win is "announced" (or above certain proba). That's how we (hope to) "identify" the impact of shocks.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol

      ...um what. This was specifically to respond to your question "why did tech moon today?" my answer then and now is basically the expectation of looser fiscal policy and a weakened dollar/ZIRP leading to higher multiples + investor nervousness looking for a flight to safety.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      I see, I though your answer was the dem senate. Ok, that's a plausible story (i.e., well constructed QED with reverse-engineering logic)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol

      well yeah, it is also related to the Dem senate. These policies I mentioned only worked with a Dem senate, since the Republicans are about to remember the debt exists.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      So why today and not yesterday or tomorrow? we knew the senate by early jan

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol @nope_its_lily

      Dem senate story => tech up today does not fly at all as an explanation. Just makes no sense whatsoever wrt timing. Risk aversion/flight to safety story also does not fly - tech would be down on a big risk off move!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @QuantVol

      Big tech is up considerably more than small cap tech.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @macrocephalopod

      My opinion on all these narratives: "I think is going up because is going up"

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol @macrocephalopod

      Sure. But like I always do, I never explain things in hindsight, because that's silly and useless. My explanation could be incorrect, and there's no real way to test this anyway.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @macrocephalopod

      you could test by observing price dynamic around the announcement of the shock

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol @nope_its_lily

      Admittedly that’s difficult for one-off events (like dems winning senate) as there can be other factors at play and you can’t really disentangle them from one event.

      11:18 AM - 20 Jan 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @nope_its_lily

          do it heuristically with price action around the event, don't estimate anything

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
          Replying to @QuantVol @nope_its_lily

          I mean, what if there are other contemporaneous events? It’s not like dems winning the senate was something that happened instantaneously.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info