macrocephalopod

hold on , the dem win was long time ago, the "identification exercise" of your "prediction" (or hunch) has expired long time ago.

Um. Not really, no. Did you see the whole debate we had in the comments?

It was more macro-focused, *specifically* about megacap tech.

Ok so: we check prices in a window (say 30min or 2hours) around the moment at which dem senate win is "announced" (or above certain proba). That's how we (hope to) "identify" the impact of shocks.

...um what. This was specifically to respond to your question "why did tech moon today?" my answer then and now is basically the expectation of looser fiscal policy and a weakened dollar/ZIRP leading to higher multiples + investor nervousness looking for a flight to safety.

I see, I though your answer was the dem senate. Ok, that's a plausible story (i.e., well constructed QED with reverse-engineering logic)

well yeah, it is also related to the Dem senate. These policies I mentioned only worked with a Dem senate, since the Republicans are about to remember the debt exists.

So why today and not yesterday or tomorrow? we knew the senate by early jan