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macrocephalopod's profile
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
macrocephalopod
@macrocephalopod

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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol

      Lily.wav Retweeted Lily.wav

      https://twitter.com/nope_its_lily/status/1346237761020284928 …

      Lily.wav added,

      Lily.wav @nope_its_lily
      Repubs lose Senate (2 Dem wins): - Metals: Bullish - Clean: Bullish/neutral (priced in?) - EV: Bullish - China: Bullish - COVID/PPE: Bullish ($APT ex.) - Megacap tech: Bullish - REITs: Bullish - TLT: Bearish - UUP: Bearish - Body cams/police reform: Bullish [cont.]
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @QuantVol

      I actually got a lot of flak for predicting that megacap tech would go up.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      hold on , the dem win was long time ago, the "identification exercise" of your "prediction" (or hunch) has expired long time ago.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol

      Um. Not really, no. Did you see the whole debate we had in the comments?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily @QuantVol

      It was more macro-focused, *specifically* about megacap tech.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      Ok so: we check prices in a window (say 30min or 2hours) around the moment at which dem senate win is "announced" (or above certain proba). That's how we (hope to) "identify" the impact of shocks.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol

      ...um what. This was specifically to respond to your question "why did tech moon today?" my answer then and now is basically the expectation of looser fiscal policy and a weakened dollar/ZIRP leading to higher multiples + investor nervousness looking for a flight to safety.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      I see, I though your answer was the dem senate. Ok, that's a plausible story (i.e., well constructed QED with reverse-engineering logic)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol

      well yeah, it is also related to the Dem senate. These policies I mentioned only worked with a Dem senate, since the Republicans are about to remember the debt exists.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @nope_its_lily

      So why today and not yesterday or tomorrow? we knew the senate by early jan

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 20 Jan 2021
      Replying to @QuantVol @nope_its_lily

      Dem senate story => tech up today does not fly at all as an explanation. Just makes no sense whatsoever wrt timing. Risk aversion/flight to safety story also does not fly - tech would be down on a big risk off move!

      11:04 AM - 20 Jan 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Lily.wav‏ @nope_its_lily 20 Jan 2021
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @QuantVol

          Big tech is up considerably more than small cap tech.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        2. econ_quant_vol‏ @QuantVol 20 Jan 2021
          Replying to @nope_its_lily @macrocephalopod

          My opinion on all these narratives: "I think is going up because is going up"

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies

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