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econhedge‏ @econhedge 31 Dec 2020

econhedge Retweeted Ben Kentish

This is pretty incredible. Vaccine makers suggesting the change in U.K. policy on vaccine dose sequencing is potentially hugely flawed. Are we snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory?https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1344584306589638656 …

econhedge added,

Ben KentishVerified account @BenKentish

Pfizer says there is “no data” to suggest that people are properly protected after just one dose of its vaccine, as U.K. scientists and politicians have said: “The safety and efficacy of the vaccine has not been evaluated on different dosing schedules.” pic.twitter.com/8mSbDeIptp

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4 replies 7 retweets 10 likes

macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @econhedge

True that there is “no data” from their trial, but plenty of reasons to think that protection will last longer than 21 days based on (a) our understanding of the mechanism (b) experience with vaccines for other pathogens.

1 reply 0 retweets 1 like

macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @macrocephalopod @econhedge

eg AstraZeneca vaccine *was* tested in a one dose regime and protection was as good (actually better) than two dose regime, up to the point they stopped the trial. Are there reasons to think that the Pfizer vaccine is different?

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econhedge‏ @econhedge 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @macrocephalopod

Pfizer is a 2 dose vaccine. In the trial some participants caught the virus between getting the first and second dose and one dose was found to be 52% effective.

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @econhedge

Almost everyone who caught the virus after the first dose caught it within the first ten days, when you would not expect much if any immunity. Between 10 and 21 days it was nearly as effective as in the period following the second dose.

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econhedge‏ @econhedge 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @macrocephalopod

The difference is big. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826 …

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Ben‏ @1867ben 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @econhedge @macrocephalopod

But as @macrocephalopod said - that’s all about timing. Those cases were in the short period after first dose and before we’d expect it to be working anyway. There’s no evidence about rates after would expect immunity.

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econhedge‏ @econhedge 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @1867ben @macrocephalopod

What do you think we are taking about ... we are talking exactly about timing

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macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @econhedge @1867ben

Look at the difference in the slope of the lower line between 0 to 10 days and 10 to 21 days. Second dose is not administered till 21 days but protection has obviously kicked in before that.pic.twitter.com/sstcFj9MJI

2 replies 0 retweets 1 like

Michael Penn‏ @pennma2 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @macrocephalopod @econhedge @1867ben

I understand what you're saying, and you may well be right. But it seems extremely risky to change a national distribution strategy based solely on the idea of extrapolating the red line from days 10-21 and assuming it remains flat.

1 reply 0 retweets 1 like

macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod 31 Dec 2020

Replying to @pennma2 @econhedge @1867ben

Yep understand that there are risks and data is limited. But the decision is not only based on this data - trials of other covid vaccines, other metrics from these trials (eg antibody production) and what we know about vaccines in general 1/2

6:21 AM - 31 Dec 2020

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