This is pretty incredible. Vaccine makers suggesting the change in U.K. policy on vaccine dose sequencing is potentially hugely flawed. Are we snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory?https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1344584306589638656 …
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What do you think we are taking about ... we are talking exactly about timing
Look at the difference in the slope of the lower line between 0 to 10 days and 10 to 21 days. Second dose is not administered till 21 days but protection has obviously kicked in before that.pic.twitter.com/sstcFj9MJI
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All of the difference between 1 dose and 2 dose regime happens in the first ten days after the first dose, when there is no immunity. You would have this period whether you are in a 1 dose or two dose regime.
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In fact based on Pfizer’s own data, there is no evidence that the second dose does anything at all! All we can say is that two doses is effective. They didn’t test one dose regime so hard to say, but there’s some evidence (and our priors) that one dose is pretty good.
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I understand what you're saying, and you may well be right. But it seems extremely risky to change a national distribution strategy based solely on the idea of extrapolating the red line from days 10-21 and assuming it remains flat.
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Yep understand that there are risks and data is limited. But the decision is not only based on this data - trials of other covid vaccines, other metrics from these trials (eg antibody production) and what we know about vaccines in general 1/2
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