Michael ClemensVerified account

@m_clem

Fellow +. My views only. Assoc. Editor & . Author of , coming in 2019. YouTube:

Washington, DC
mclem.org
Joined January 2010
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Dec 1

    A typical family that’s poor by global standards is poor not because of who they are, but where they are. “The Place Premium: Bounding the Price Equivalent of Migration Barriers” My work with Montenegro & Pritchett, in final form at last

    4 replies 80 retweets 151 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    8 hours ago

    I suggested that donors interested in supporting 's policy work consider donations to or ; my colleagues have other thoughtful suggestions:

    1 reply 4 retweets 13 likes
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  3. Retweeted
    10 hours ago

    “Can labor immigration work for refugees?” - my new paper for , available here:

    Rich nations could adapt labor migration policies to accommodate , argues in our new issue.
    1 reply 13 retweets 19 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    11 hours ago

    First of al, when you have to do a re-re-re-re-analysis of a single case study (Mariel boatlift) you’ve lost the war. Respectfully, Borjas should move on. Second, provides a remarkable lucid exposition of this messy back and forth.

    Yet another study of the Mariel Boatlift is making the rounds. I'll discuss it after a recap of the recent history of this debate. *Deep dive alert* -->
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    2 replies 19 retweets 82 likes
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  5. 10 hours ago

    “Jewish Persecutions and Weather Shocks: 1100–1800” By Anderson, Johnson, and

    6 retweets 7 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    21 hours ago

    Updating story. Here's the DOJ letter telling Congress that Whitaker was advised by ethics officials to recuse from the Mueller probe but decided not to.

    32 replies 1,020 retweets 1,158 likes
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  7. 18 hours ago

    “Are Referees and Editors in Economics Gender Neutral?” By Card, , Funk, & Iriberri via

    6 retweets 15 likes
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  8. 19 hours ago

    The US President’s **own Defense Secretary** has sent a clear message to those Constitutionally charged with overseeing the White House: The President’s coddling of enemies and spitting on friends has placed all Americans in danger. This is a national emergency.

    Mattis letter implies that Trump is irresolute toward Russia and China, disrespectful of allies, and not advancing an international order "conducive to our security, prosperity and values."
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    1 reply 6 retweets 19 likes
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  9. 22 hours ago

    GOP leaders appear to be realizing the danger.

    This statement from is probably the strongest statement he has ever made in opposition to President Trump. This is a serious signal that the winds may be shifting
    1 retweet 1 like
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  10. Dec 20

    Just delighted to have you here, !

    But! Next year, I am extremely excited to be joining as their Migration, Displacement & Humanitarian Senior Associate for Policy Outreach! Working w/ , & @Katelyngough will be an absolute dream, as will trying to move the debate on. Watch this space!
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    1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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  11. Dec 20

    I think got this right: We have probably learned as much as we can about immigration and labor markets from the Mariel Boatlift. The new study, grasping for new ways to rehabilitate prior spurious findings, raises more questions than it answers.

    4 replies 5 retweets 84 likes
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  12. Dec 20

    If the help-wanted ads capture employment conditions, why the consensus finding of zero effect on unemployment? If the help-wanted ads capture wage conditions, why are the help-wanted effects identical for lower- and higher-skill, but the wage effects definitely are not?

    1 reply 13 likes
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  13. Dec 20

    But this new reanalysis using help-wanted ads finds a big decline in Miami, a decline that is indistinguishable between different skill levels.

    1 reply 10 likes
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  14. Dec 20

    Putting all these pieces together, you have an incoherent mess. The original reanalysis of David Card claimed to show that the Mariel Boatlift 1) had no effect on low-skill unemployment at all, but 2) sharply different effects on wages of different skill-levels.

    1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
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  15. Dec 20

    If you dig to page 36 of the new paper using help-wanted ads, you find something remarkable: the decline of help-wanted ads in Miami was indistinguishable between ads for more-skilled and less-skilled jobs (!).

    1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
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  16. Dec 20

    Remember that analysis identical to Borjas's shows that the Mariel Boatlift caused a large *rise* in wages for workers with high-school only (in red), relative to comparison cities (green) or prior trends (gray).

    2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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  17. Dec 20

    They use an index of help-wanted advertisements in newspapers. They find that the number of help-wanted ads in the Miami Herald fell after 1980 relative to newspapers in other cities. From this we only get more confusion.

    1 reply 11 likes
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  18. Dec 20

    Getting now to the new, re-re-re-re-re-re-analysis of the Mariel Boatlift now circulating, Borjas & co-authors are back with a different measure of labor market conditions:

    1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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  19. Dec 20

    Jenny Hunt and I do have an explanation, in our paper. There were major increases in the low-skill black population of Miami in 1980 due to the simultaneous arrival of immigrants from Haiti, and there were major changes in census data coverage of blacks. It is not a mystery.

    1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
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  20. Dec 20

    The study's author has no explanation for this. When seminar participants challenge him about it, he reverts to accusing Jenny Hunt and me of somehow "manipulating the data"

    He’s now citing his Mariel paper, about which has a thread showing it is problematic. His defense: “it is easy to manipulate the data.”
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    1 reply 2 retweets 16 likes
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  21. Dec 20

    This personal attack did nothing to alter the facts: The entire wage decline Borjas had seen, even in that tiny slice of low-skill Miami workers (just 9% of them, after discarding Hispanics, women, young, etc.), was explained by an unrelated change in sample composition.

    1 reply 3 retweets 33 likes
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