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lyndon_bae_j's profile
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@lyndon_bae_j

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@lyndon_bae_j

Want to see a world with fair and abundant housing 🏙️ free and safe movement 🚎 and effective government that protects the vulnerable 🗳️

west phila best phila
Joined August 2016

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 15 Feb 2021

      I'm flabbergasted here. This isn't a correct interpretation of vaccine efficacy—and that 95% number. It doesn't mean vaccines leave 1 in 20 people "unprotected". https://www.timesnews.net/living/wellness/5-reasons-to-wear-a-mask-even-after-you-re-vaccinated/article_382fb8e0-5bfc-11eb-9945-2315e7061dc1.html …pic.twitter.com/iDI1SOeIxk

      64 replies 335 retweets 2,081 likes
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    2. youjustdontgetitdoya‏ @youjustdontget1 15 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      ... what... what does it actually mean?

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    3. This Tweet is unavailable.
    4. youjustdontgetitdoya‏ @youjustdontget1 15 Feb 2021

      oh got it. "Unprotected" is not appropriate because it offered some protection, but not enough to avoid some illness.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      pink globe emoji‏ @lyndon_bae_j 15 Feb 2021
      Replying to @youjustdontget1 @Mitsein @zeynep

      The second error is more fundamental: '95% effective' means that 5% of the COVID cases in the trial were in the vaccine group, 95% in the control group.https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.html …

      1:49 PM - 15 Feb 2021
      • 12 Retweets
      • 63 Likes
      • trinigod cc Kristen Valanoski Ryszard Szarfenberg Chaz Maz jacob Steven Dore Levi Laura
      5 replies 12 retweets 63 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. pink globe emoji‏ @lyndon_bae_j 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @lyndon_bae_j @youjustdontget1 and

          So the denominator is completely wrong. Think about what it would actually mean for 5% of the vaccine group to be infected over the trial period. That would be a huge percentage!

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
        3. Kahve‏ @hammerotass 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @lyndon_bae_j @youjustdontget1 and

          Our intuitive way of thinking about that efficacy number that is being banded around is the "95 out of 100 infections were prevented". Your tweet says that's entirely backwards. Is there any way to translate the number to that format, if approximate..?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Colman Humphrey‏ @ColmanHumphrey 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @lyndon_bae_j @youjustdontget1 and

          shouldn't it be closer to 5/105 vs 100/105? e.g. if the numbers were 110 cases vs 220, we'd say 50% effective, not 33.3% (otherwise "50% effective" would mean it was useless)

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Danyal Dhondy‏ @danyaldhondy 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @lyndon_bae_j @youjustdontget1 and

          Not quite. 95% effective means that there were only 5% of the control group's cases in the vaccine group (ie 5.25% of the total cases). Otherwise, '50% effective' would mean half the total cases in the control group, half in the vaccine group.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Nothing Man‏ @Nothing___Man 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @danyaldhondy @lyndon_bae_j and

          I'm not sure I'm understanding. I was thinking that it meant (# of COVID cases among vaccine recipients in trial) / (# of COVID cases among control group in trial) = 0.05. Am I misunderstanding?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Matthew Baylis  🦟 🦋 🐜‏ @Baylism 15 Feb 2021
          Replying to @lyndon_bae_j @Nanyingih and

          95% effective means that the incidence in vaccinees was 5% that of non-vaccinees. Eg, 100 cases per 10k in people who did not get vaccine vs 5 cases per 10k in people who did. So it is more like 100/105 vs 5/105. Not 95/100 v 5/100

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. PaulM  🇮🇪 🇫🇷 🇨🇦 🚲 🐟‏ @Onebiskuit 16 Feb 2021
          Replying to @lyndon_bae_j @youjustdontget1 and

          Be careful - you can’t separate efficacy of a vaccine from efficacy of a trial subject’s isolation measures. They didn’t deliberately expose every trial and control subject to infection! You can’t say vaccine was 99.96% effective because only 40 out of 100,000 subjects got sick

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Owen Thompson‏ @Technicallyowen 16 Feb 2021
          Replying to @Onebiskuit @lyndon_bae_j and

          It's In comparison to the control group who on average would have had a similar range of behavior and risk of infection if in a normal population of 100000 lets say 1000 would normally be infected we'll if 500 of the control group but only 25 for vaccine then it's 95% effective

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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