This could be survey error. I mean, the hard zero on female celibacy is for-sure survey error... and it suggests the error band in any given year here is probably at least +/- 6% or so, so the these trends are extremely rough sketches.
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I'm not offering any particular conclusions here. Just broad notes on what we can actually say about how much people are gettin' down with each other.
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I should note here that, again, the proximate cause here is not rising female promiscuity. Nor is it that the unmarried make market has become uniquely winner-take-all. It's that marriage is declining. That's the big difference between now and the 90s.
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All the winner-take-all models of relationships rely on basically two key assumptions: competition occurs along one or two axes where some people have large absolute advantages, and a winner can have multiple partners.
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This might match the market for casual flings or even up to medium term relationships. But that is not how much more complicated, non-polyamorous marriage markets clear.
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As a larger share of the total market for romance is defined by low commitment relationships, and a smaller shared defined by spouse-hunting, the winner-take-all simple competition models become more descriptive of the total market's observed features.
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The reality is the singles ready to mingle market has always been cutthroat--- the difference is just we've vastly expanded that sub-market's share of the total market by delaying marriage. That's the key driver here, statistically speaking.
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Here's a mea culpa: Thanks to
@toad_spotted I realized that I was accidently suppressing a large number of GSS cases. Including them does DRASTICALLY reduce the amount of observed volatility in all series, tho not the trend directions much.Show this thread
End of conversation
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The "incel wave" in the 90s and the short-term fluctuation in female celibacy could be accounted for under the massive margin for error in this study, although the greater long term trend statistically seem to be way beyond just error
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