This could be survey error. I mean, the hard zero on female celibacy is for-sure survey error... and it suggests the error band in any given year here is probably at least +/- 6% or so, so the these trends are extremely rough sketches.
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THAT SAID: this also suggests there was an "incel wave" in the 90s, which dissipated. And that female celibacy rose from 1997-2011. Neither of these jive super well with the incel narrative.
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I'm not offering any particular conclusions here. Just broad notes on what we can actually say about how much people are gettin' down with each other.
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I should note here that, again, the proximate cause here is not rising female promiscuity. Nor is it that the unmarried make market has become uniquely winner-take-all. It's that marriage is declining. That's the big difference between now and the 90s.
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All the winner-take-all models of relationships rely on basically two key assumptions: competition occurs along one or two axes where some people have large absolute advantages, and a winner can have multiple partners.
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This might match the market for casual flings or even up to medium term relationships. But that is not how much more complicated, non-polyamorous marriage markets clear.
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As a larger share of the total market for romance is defined by low commitment relationships, and a smaller shared defined by spouse-hunting, the winner-take-all simple competition models become more descriptive of the total market's observed features.
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The reality is the singles ready to mingle market has always been cutthroat--- the difference is just we've vastly expanded that sub-market's share of the total market by delaying marriage. That's the key driver here, statistically speaking.
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Here's a mea culpa: Thanks to
@toad_spotted I realized that I was accidently suppressing a large number of GSS cases. Including them does DRASTICALLY reduce the amount of observed volatility in all series, tho not the trend directions much.Show this thread
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1 in 115 isn't THAT bad considering how easy it is to swipe right. I think most guys can get one or two matches a day, which is more than enough.
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And it's not like the super hot dudes are following through on all of those matches. That would be impossible.
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But I do ok in terms of getting dates and I'm not especially super attractive
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....that's great
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seems like a wealth inequality thing to me
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Hey thanks for using an act of terrorism and mass murder to help spark a conversation about their idiotic ideas. That’s certainly a good motivator for more such acts.
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