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lymanstoneky's profile
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬
@lymanstoneky

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Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬

@lymanstoneky

石來民 Lutheran. Husband. Dad. Kentuckian. Demographer. @DemographicNTEL @FamStudies @AEI @NovakFellows . lymanrstone at gmail dot com

KY-DC-HK-QC
demographicintel.com
Joined July 2012

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    1. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      Speaking of death and habits... Q: What happened when AUstralia banned teen drivers from carrying passengers between 11:00 PM and 5:00 AM? A: Deaths in that group fell DRAMATICALLY. #NBERday https://www.nber.org/papers/w28707 pic.twitter.com/oGMrJF5DjL

      3 replies 20 retweets 81 likes
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    2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      And it's not because teens drove safer. They were less likely to appear even in crashes for which they were NOT at fault! It's that this reform simply led to teens driving *less*. #NBERdaypic.twitter.com/CCwdLUx0go

      2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
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    3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      These good habits persist for up to 3 years after a driver is no longer subject to the restrictions: Australia actually CREATED A NORM where young drivers learned not to drive late at night with passengers! #NBERdaypic.twitter.com/FwjlVOJH2i

      1 reply 1 retweet 26 likes
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    4. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      So I'm just gonna put it out there that "it's illegal for teen drivers to carpool between 11 and 5 AM" actually seems like a really good policy we should just roll out everywhere. #NBERday

      8 replies 6 retweets 38 likes
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    5. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      Let's talk about a different case of norms, youth, violent deaths, and habits. Q: What leads young men to join violent militia groups? A: Seeing their wives and sisters raped. #NBERday https://www.nber.org/papers/w28714 pic.twitter.com/k12JMJ6uzE

      1 reply 5 retweets 17 likes
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    6. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      This study is one in a family exploring violence in Congo using INCREDIBLE datasets of reconstructed violence history. I've tweeted about prior papers. This one is, like the others, truly remarkable in its research. #NBERday

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    7. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      They randomly identified a few hundred villages in North and South Kivu in eastern Congo, and interviewed a random subsample in each village of households. Each household interview TOOK AN ENTIRE DAY. They paid each respondent well above a day's wage. #NBERday

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    8. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      For a whole day a researcher would interview, discuss, tag along, observe, just generally get to know the person's life and story, and work through an extensive but intuitively-designed life history questionnaire. #NBERday

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    9. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      In this area, foreign militias (especially the folks who led the genocide in Rwanda then fled into Congo) have engaged in tons of looting and pillaging, so most victims of violent attacks were victimized by those groups. #NBERday

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    10. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      Being victimized by a foreign group (read: Rwandan genocidaires) increased the odds that a person would end up joining a Congolese militia group BUT ONLY if they were attacked while the official military was ABSENT. #NBERday

      1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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      Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

      This.... is pretty fascinating. Basically, when people perceive that the state cannot protect them because they have been victimized by armed bands, they respond by joining *opposing* armed bands. Which.... DUH. #NBERday

      10:45 AM - 26 Apr 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 19 Likes
      • Lynn Klein ⛷️Bad🏍️Idea🏔️Haver🔫 Paul Kempf Add States Sean Lhm Ducky Theo Gibb Taupe Avenger
      2 replies 3 retweets 19 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          But it is SO RARE that researchers can actually "see" this process and measure it and understand it carefully! The team in the Congo is doing incredible work merging quantitative and qualitative research. #NBERday

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          Now to return to the original question, note that the *kind* of attack matters. Sexual violence is most predictive, and sexual violence *against a man's wife* even moreso. #NBERdaypic.twitter.com/DYe3PdoVHj

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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        4. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          The effect of attacking a man's wife or sexual assault on anyone in his household is nearly *double* the effect of some other assault on his household. #NBERday

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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        5. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          These effects are extremely robust. They go through tons of different controls, sub-specifications, robustness tests, validation checks... it's the real deal. #NBERday

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        6. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          The authors refer to this behavior as "parochial altruism," i.e. that people will respond to *community* threats but not wider threats; they show that effect sizes diminish when its some other family attacked or a neighboring village. #NBERday

          2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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        7. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          i.e. if your wife is raped, you join a militia; if you hear about a woman raped in the neighboring village, maybe not so much. Which speaks to the fact that human consciences and capacities have limits, of course. #NBERday

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        8. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          But more broadly, and speaking not professionally here but out of sympathy for the people being studied here, I think we laypeople can refer to what these Congolese men are doing as "being good and honorable husbands and fathers." #NBERday

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        9. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          Would it be better if they were more conscious of someone more distant violence and took proactive measures? Yes, sure. But the paper shows these men aren't undermining state provision of security. They *only* mobilize when the state *cannot*. #NBERday

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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        10. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          They aren't trying to build a rival state and protect the whole province, they're just doing their best to fill in the security gap the state can't manage. So not responding to attacks on other villages doesn't seem unreasonable. That's the state's job! #NBERday

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        11. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky Apr 26

          Anyways. That's all I'm gonna cover today. Bunch of other cool papers about education and such! #NBERday

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        12. End of conversation

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