Hey @tylercowen how many mentions do I have to get in the convos before I get invited?https://twitter.com/ModeledBehavior/status/1303688856978567169 …
-
-
So in *almost every declining population region*, the locale primate city actually has MUCH STRONGER population growth than hinterlands, despite often having lower birth rates, due to local migration dynamics.
Show this thread -
In other words, one of the reasons Tokyo and other Japanese megacities are booming is that more and more communities in Japan are becoming social, political, and economic husks as their population falls below sustainable levels.
Show this thread -
I haven't written a paper on this yet but I am scheduled to do something about it for AEI sometime in the next 365 days. So, stay tuned!
Show this thread -
In terms of disagreements with
@tylercowen , his question about dysgenic fertility is important but I think easily resolvable. While the marginal baby may be born to poor families, gaps between realizations and ideals are higher among rich people: pent up demand is not poor!Show this thread -
But BEYOND THAT: the whole heuristic is wrong. Yes, parental inheritance is significant... .... but the VAST MAJORITY of kids born in the bottom fifth of America escape it.
Show this thread -
Is economic mobility as high as we'd like? No. But it's plenty high enough that churn is more than high enough to need to worry about a multi-generational dumbing-down effect or something like that.
Show this thread -
And if we adopt pro-natal policies that are also opportunity-enhancing, like child allowances or something, then we kill two birds with one stone.
Show this thread -
Where I strongly agree with
@tylercowen and@mattyglesias is people should become more religious and guys you can totally just start going to church, Immanuel Lutheran in Alexandria is a swell place! (in fairness I dunno if you may already go somewhere, Tyler)Show this thread -
One last note: a nice "hint" about why small states are often better-governed, which I agree with
@tylercowen about, is the confluence of a Hayekian knowledge problem with the scale of representative bodies. I outline a US solution here:https://mereorthodoxy.com/congressional-apportionment-amendment/ …Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.