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lymanstoneky's profile
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬
@lymanstoneky

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Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬

@lymanstoneky

石來民 Lutheran. Husband. Dad. Kentuckian. Demographer. @DemographicNTEL @FamStudies @AEI @NovakFellows . lymanrstone at gmail dot com

KY-DC-HK-QC
demographicintel.com
Joined July 2012

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    Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

    You may have heard that China is sterilizing Uyghur women. It's not just that. Ethnic and religious minorities all over China are, by hook or by crook, seeing their family aspirations thwarted, even as the government presses for more Han babies.https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/30/chinese-communist-party-han-baby-boom-sterilization-ethnic-minorities/ …

    2:28 AM - 2 Jul 2020
    • 474 Retweets
    • 1,023 Likes
    • Intersectionally Jewish Happy Mama at Home ❤️❤️❤️ Lysa O'Kane 🌜🌟🌛 Biden/Harris 2020 🇺🇸JulesForFreedom🇺🇸 Cindy757 The sleepiest bitch baconmashwbrownsugar 🦠Legionnaire's disease, sometimes Pontiac fever 3 Libras Magdelena
    28 replies 474 retweets 1,023 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        China has pivoted HARD from its post-famine anti-natal stance of the last few decades. Rather than "reduce Han fertility but provide exemptions for politically sensitive groups," it's "increase Han fertility and repress politically sensitive groups as much as possible."

        3 replies 15 retweets 107 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        Good question! Here's an article on China's sterilization program in Xinjiang. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/01/china-documents-uighur-genocidal-sterilization-xinjiang/ …

        1 reply 21 retweets 100 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        We can see this looking at the change in birth rates by region. Regions with more minorities have had much steeper declines. What limited data I have suggests this is true within regions too: more minority-dominated counties have had bigger declines.pic.twitter.com/r25iftZ9cw

        3 replies 7 retweets 54 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        Nor is this just a mean-regression thing. Here's the same data, with some tweaks: I've included Macau, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, and I've presented it as % change in crude birth rate, not just raw change. The trend still holds.pic.twitter.com/HZqO1ikMGC

        2 replies 7 retweets 38 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        What's interesting is that Taiwan is one of the less-diverse parts of the Sinosphere, yet has had a very large decline in birth rates. This points to how oddly *positive* the change in Han birth rates on the mainland have been.

        2 replies 3 retweets 36 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        Some will look at Hong Kong and Gungxi and say that this disproves the rule: but I disagree. SARs may be different: the HK/Macau contrast is pretty clear, for one thing.

        1 reply 3 retweets 25 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        For Guangxi, I'm not as confident about what's going on. I know very little about Cuengh identity politics other than that the very name used "Zhuang" is derived from a series of ethnic slurs until it was laughably ret-conned by the CCP to mean "tough."

        2 replies 3 retweets 28 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        But I dunno about Cuengh ethnopolitics or their relationship with family policy or local governance or whatever.

        1 reply 3 retweets 20 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        If anyone can refer me to some good english-language articles about Cuengh identity politics and Guangxi's family policies I'd be super interested.

        2 replies 3 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        Anyways, my argument is that what's going on is that the CCP is having a change in their vision of their place in the world. The "China Dream," "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy, etc, it's all a shift towards more assertiveness.

        1 reply 4 retweets 29 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        The problem is that the CCP is writing checks they'll only be able to cash for a few more decades. They're about to enter severe and interminable demographic decline.

        2 replies 4 retweets 37 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        Here's what I mean. And I guarantee you CCP officials have seen a chart like this. The wild thing is, I'm not even including India as a potential US ally! If I did, China is already swamped.pic.twitter.com/ACGpVKcMoD

        3 replies 6 retweets 48 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        The thing is, the chart the CCP is looking at is even scarier. Because they're looking at recruitable manpower. And for the CCP, a lot of minority fighting-age men are, uh, not seen as a *national asset*.

        1 reply 4 retweets 39 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        Since non-Han make up a larger share of the young and prime-age Chinese population, that means that if I limited the line to HAN Chinese fighting-age males it would fall EVEN FASTER.

        1 reply 3 retweets 30 likes
        Show this thread
      16. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        And if I also control for, say, obesity (rising fast!), it's even steeper downwards. Add in rising outside-options for success besides the military. The CCP lets in businessmen now! Being a PLA officer doesn't even guarantee you a leg up in intraparty competition anymore!

        1 reply 3 retweets 30 likes
        Show this thread
      17. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        The point is, China is entering an extremely steep demographic decline. While the US is also entering a period of demographic malaise, as are many of our allies, it's not NEARLY as severe.

        1 reply 3 retweets 45 likes
        Show this thread
      18. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        The article is about birth rates. But a big driver of China's bad demos and the US+allies good demos is not births at all. It's immigration. A lot of Chinese people leave China and move to the US and our allies.

        3 replies 5 retweets 43 likes
        Show this thread
      19. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 2 Jul 2020

        We should accelerate China's decline and secure our position and encourage the depopulation of Hong Kong. Issue millions of visas. Recruit'em. Knocking another million fighting-age males off China's line right now, and their children down the line, is significant.

        6 replies 27 retweets 127 likes
        Show this thread
      20. End of conversation

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