But it's clearly the case that that may not be an error!
If they were born in the post-reform period but their parents had only been resident in Germany for 2 years, they wouldn't be a natural-born citizen even under the reform! #NBERday
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But notably, they did NOT find any change in the estimated undocumented population, and they find that likely-undocumented people were MORE likely to report self-employment income!
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In other words, E-Verify reduced employment for all people, but most for undocumented people... but this didn't get them to "voluntarily deport." They just started their own businesses/did gray market work.
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Sidenote: is there a more American response imaginable to a government restricting your right to work than being like, "well okay then I'll just start my own business."
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Anyways, E-Verify is expensive and although it does reduce the employment-based appeal of illegal migration, it doesn't actually reduce the size of the undocumented population. And it also reduces employment among natives.
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Also, here's a picture of my baby seconds after she said, "Daddy, I and my cohort peers would benefit from a child allowance; furthermore, my lack of birthright citizenship in Hong Kong will not deter me from pursuing meaningful cultural integration."
#NBERdaypic.twitter.com/nk4XZ3ac59
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Quick note: I missed two appendices on the abortion paper. They DO compare to a sample of other births: they look at women in their sample who just barely got an abortion, then did have a child later on. Turnaway women look worse, but the effect is insignificant.
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It's a small sample, and there's no reason to suppose those births were unintended, so it's not a pure comparison (which the authors correctly and clearly note). To me, finding statistically similar effects suggest this is really just a "had a baby" effect.
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The authors also show in the appendix that effects on women's financial distress varies by state. The increase in financial distress is ONLY OBSERVED among women living in states with *less generous* welfare.
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This to me makes their non-inclusion of transfer policies even more baffling. Their additional analyses clearly showed that the financial distress outcome was sensitive to the generosity of local transfer systems!
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So their exploratory analyses seem to show that turnaway women's experience is not statistically significantly different from a comparison group of women who had births, and the bad outcomes only occur in the absence of generous transfers.
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That being the case it seems obvious that the solution here is a child allowance and/or a baby bonus. They literally just showed us that these hardships are not unique to turnaways and that they can be effectively reduced through cash transfers like TANF!
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HUZZAH! Landing on this kind of finding is kind of exciting. Yes those exploratory analyses are very small sample sizes and not perfect experiments, but they help show what we're looking at: Having kids is a big financial shock for everyone, esp. if unintended!
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