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lymanstoneky's profile
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬
@lymanstoneky

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Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬

@lymanstoneky

石來民 Lutheran. Husband. Dad. Kentuckian. Demographer. @DemographicNTEL @FamStudies @AEI @NovakFellows . lymanrstone at gmail dot com

KY-DC-HK-QC
demographicintel.com
Joined July 2012

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    1. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

      Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬 Retweeted Hansi Lo Wang

      Okay this is fascinating! The citizenship test that Census should have done a decade or two ago for the ACS finally got done for the Census question.... It did reduce Hispanic response rates *and Hispanic ethnic identification rates*.https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1211772725238386689 …

      Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬 added,

      Hansi Lo WangVerified account @hansilowang
      NEW: The now-blocked citizenship question would have been especially sensitive in certain areas with Latinx/Asian residents, noncitizens, & Spanish speakers who don't speak English very well, @uscensusbureau says in final report about its national test👇 https://www.npr.org/2019/12/30/792420857/census-bureau-finds-latinos-asians-sensitive-to-now-blocked-citizenship-question …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 5 retweets 24 likes
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    2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

      But it did NOT reduce overall response rates! Which.... uh... does that mean it *increased* non-Hispanic response rates?

      2 replies 3 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

      Overall response rates only fell by 0.5%: this is, AFAIK, lower than the expert panels suggested in their various submissions to court and papers.

      1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

      Shockingly, the ONLY survey method that elicited significantly lower responses was by mail. That is to say, citizenship question presence induced lower response rates *only* in the case where there was the *least* pressure on the respondent.

      1 reply 3 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

      There was *not* a significant decline in response rates in communities with more foreign-born people. But there was a *barely* significant decline (p=0.05) in tracts with 49.1%+ Hispanic population, of 1.1%.

      1 reply 3 retweets 4 likes
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      Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

      Folks just a reminder, the Census Bureau's experts predicted, and the Supreme Court accepted ana anlysis saying, that overall response would drop by 2.2%. It dropped by (maybe) 0.5%. https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2019/CES-WP-19-18.pdf …

      9:35 PM - 30 Dec 2019
      • 4 Retweets
      • 14 Likes
      • David Kinney Bossypants Autonomous Zone Turtle Sharer of scary COVID news and cat videos Alexander 🐢🏈 Ian Collins Stephen Burch Mark L. J. Wright cinyc
      2 replies 4 retweets 14 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Throughout this whole process (go read my tweets and see my published articleS: you can can check me on this!) I've argued that: 1. The Census experts were wildly overstating their case 2. There would be some decline in response 3. It would be smaller than people were saying

          1 reply 3 retweets 18 likes
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        3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          I WAS RIGHT PEOPLE I WAS SO RIGHT YOU WERE ALL WRONG AND I WAS RIGHT I'm gonna gloat about this for a while.

          1 reply 4 retweets 33 likes
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        4. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Because Census ***had never conducted an actual test*** of the citizenship question, they overestated the effect on responses by ***400%***.

          1 reply 1 retweet 23 likes
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        5. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Now, for SCOTUS' purposes, this doesn't matter, because SCOTUS shot down the question on APA and technical grounds, not the apportionment effects. And to be clear, as I've said for a long time, I think killing it on APA grounds was good and proper.

          1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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        6. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          And I'll remind you that I wrote and argued many times before SCOTUS that what SCOTUS WOULD DO was kill it on APA grounds and not apportionment effects. AND THAT'S WHAT THEY DID.

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        7. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          On bothw hat SCOTUS would do and what a test would reveal I have made out-of-the-money calls and been right both times, because most of the commentary on this issue has been wildly partisan nonsense, even from experts.

          2 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
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        8. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Anyways back to the test results: They ONLy found significant results in Los Angeles and New York, which is interested. Suggests different levels of political activation or concern.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        9. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          I'm just.... folks.... I'm shaking with how simultaneously angry I am at all the experts who propagated misinformation WHICH WAS OBVIOUSLY MISINFORMATION and also how VINDICATED I feel.

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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        10. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          The citizenship question WAS CONSTITUTIONAL IN PRINCIPLE, but the Trump Administration's unique mixture of malice and incompetence made it fall egregiously afoul of APA. The question BARELY lowered response rates, about 80% lower than was suggested would happen.

          2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
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        11. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Now, barely lowering response rates might be super bad still! We might really value the data we get from other questions and not regard this small response reduction as an acceptable cost! But drop the histrionics, folks.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        12. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Oh man sweet justice. Vindication, thy name is randomized controlled trials.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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        13. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Here's a @voxdotcom article from me on why the Census question addition probably would not reduce response rates very much: https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/4/5/17202092/census-question-citizenship-immigration-trump-deportation-undercount-latino-hispanic … And a @FDRLST article on constitutionality:https://thefederalist.com/2018/04/02/blue-states-sue-200-year-old-census-citizenship-question/ …

          1 reply 2 retweets 8 likes
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        14. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          The Federalist article was early in the process so we didn't know how screwed up the administration's reasoning was; to see my view on that you can just search old tweets.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        15. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          I vividly remember being called a right-wing shill and a charlatan, a defender of racists and racist policy, for arguing that asking about citizenship was not prima facie unconstitutional, and that response rates would not fall by 2%.

          1 reply 2 retweets 7 likes
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        16. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          @Noahpinion I urge you to communicate to your legions that response rates to the citizenship question are only about 1/4 to 1/5 as sensitive as elite public opinion suggested

          2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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        17. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          (sorry not implying mocked by Noah here; just he's someone I feel like might be interested/might have followers who are interested)

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        18. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          I'm gonna be basking in this one for a while. I still can't believe that a team of 5 Census experts published a paper arguing that adding a citizenshop question would reduce response by *2.2 percentage points*.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        19. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          I flagged it as, uh, preeeetty weird to use comparisons of response rates to the ACS and the Census short-form in 2010 as a benchmarkl given that the ACS contains a whoooole lot more differences vs. the short-form Census than just a citizenship question

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        20. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          but nooooooo everybody was like, "these are experts, and this is a difference in difference model, therefore"

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        21. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          And this is why you need to pay attention to the wider literature on an issue before just adopting one study! The general finding of most survey response data for Census products is that individual questions do *not* have large effects on response rates!

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        22. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Individual attitudes and characteristics and large variations in survey-length, as well as differences in survey instrument and response delivery, are the biggest drivers, not specific questions, which are *usually* found to have quite modest effects.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        23. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Particularly because questions that make people worry about their identity are easy to JUST LIE ABOUT. Now, that may be an issue for other reasons: we may get unreliable data! Fair concern and fair critique of a citizenship question! Not the critique that was made!

          2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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        24. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          okay I could rage-tweet about this all day but I have real work to do so baaaack to the grind

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        25. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬 Retweeted Karl Smith

          Given that the *sign* of these significant subsamples matches the *sign* of the insignificant aggregate result, and that the estimated effect sizes are in a similar range, I think it is reasonable to suppose the subsamples do have some "real" meaning.https://twitter.com/karlbykarlsmith/status/1211891611032072193 …

          Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬 added,

          Karl SmithVerified account @karlbykarlsmith
          Replying to @lymanstoneky
          Can you comment on the robustness of bare significance in subsamplesml. Like if I keep chopping into enough blocks it seems I am bound to get p=.05 on at least one of them. How should we think about that here?
          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        26. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          HOWEVER.... It could be that the NYC and LA field offices administered the AB test differently somehow. Or any number of other factors. And the overall effect was quite small, which is the most important conclusion.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        27. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          Furthermore, the subsamples Census reports are fairly standardized; i.e. similar subsamples that they track and report for all similar tests. In other words, it's kind of like a de facto pre-registration.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        28. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          So given that I don't think they chose these subsamples selectively, but had a kind of implicit prereg, and given that sign/size match pretty well, I think it's reasonmable to say, "extremely small overall decline in responses, but modest decline in a few subgroups"

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        29. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          me irl rnhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Q8hAb230OE …

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        30. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          I warned you, but did you listen to me? Oh, no, you knew it all, didn't you? Oh, it's just a harmless little overestimated effect size, isn't it? Well, it's always the same. I always tell them--pic.twitter.com/QZvAbSsgDt

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        31. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 30 Dec 2019

          also this is a true-to-life picture of me; that's my Tuesday hat

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        32. End of conversation

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