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lymanstoneky's profile
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬
@lymanstoneky

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Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬

@lymanstoneky

石來民 Lutheran. Husband. Dad. Kentuckian. Demographer. @DemographicNTEL @FamStudies @AEI @NovakFellows . lymanrstone at gmail dot com

KY-DC-HK-QC
demographicintel.com
Joined July 2012

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    1. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

      For a while now I have felt like I did not have a good answer for libertarian acquaintances when they would ask why a libertarian should be a pronatalist. I had answers, but not ones that spoke to the peculiar psychosis that afflicts the libertarian mind.

      9 replies 4 retweets 21 likes
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    2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

      However, one occurred to me today. So let’s give it a whirl. The basic libertarian question is: why should I sanction the coercive power of the state being used to alter peoples’ free choice to have or not have kids?

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

      To answer, we must establish a few facts. 1. People have fewer kids than they want to have in virtually all welfarist societies 2. This fertility gap has not always existed, but is a modern cultural product

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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      Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

      3. A key element of the modern welfare state is old age pensions and social insurance 4. The academic literature pretty strongly supports the idea that old age pensions and fertility substitute for one another to some extent

      2:56 AM - 26 Oct 2019
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        2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          These being established, let’s proceed. States establish social security. Social security uses the coercive taxing power of the state to redistribute resources intertemporally, but usually also across income brackets as well.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          Libertarians often oppose this sort of thing. Now, sophisticated libertarians may accept it: forced saving to account for hyperbolic discounting, or some other rights-compatible approach, but few of these approaches can account for the income redistribution component.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        4. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          Thus, almost all libertarians will regard old age social insurance as the kind of policy that, while perhaps justifiable on some exigency grounds, should raise an eyebrow in terms of economic liberty.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        5. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          It is, in a word, the kind of policy you would expect to cause some kind of distortion, and that distortion is probably not welfare-maximizing.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        6. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          So we would expect that the imposition on economic liberty of old age social insurance will (for whatever it’s possible benefits) create some kind of undesirable perverse outcome somewhere else in the economy.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        7. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          We know from our givens above that old age benefits do in fact alter fertility: more benefits, less kids. And we also know that fertility is considerably below what people report desiring. I submit, this IS the distortion libertarians are looking for.

          2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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        8. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          Or at least I am comfortable allowing libertarians to believe that this is so. So. Social Security reduces fertility below what people want as it taxes young people to subsidize old people instead of those old people investing in young people to take care of them directly.

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        9. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          Or, again, you might think if you are a libertarian.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        10. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          This beingvtye case, and assuming you are a decent libertarian who wants to mitigate harms, you would rationally desire to correct this issue. Repeating old age social insurance is one option. But has many other political and economic costs.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        11. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          Sorry, repealing, not repeating

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        12. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          Your second best option is to somehow create policies that, in as deft a way as possible, offsetsvtye antinatal impact of old age pensions. That will most likely be some kind of cash- or cash-like pronatal policy.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        13. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          Thus, a libertarian thinking seriously about how welfare states work and acting with even a modest degree of political strategy will have a pretty decent motive to espouse pronatal policy. /fin

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        14. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 26 Oct 2019

          Libertarians, how did I do?

          12 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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        15. End of conversation

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