Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
lymanstoneky's profile
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬
@lymanstoneky

Tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬

@lymanstoneky

石來民 Lutheran. Husband. Dad. Kentuckian. Demographer. @DemographicNTEL @FamStudies @AEI @NovakFellows . lymanrstone at gmail dot com

KY-DC-HK-QC
demographicintel.com
Joined July 2012

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

      I do not understand the @SohrabAhmari / @DouthatNYT disagreement on the future "Catholic" character of American religion: PRLS 2014 data is abundantly clear that Catholic net conversion rates are abysmally low.

      9 replies 18 retweets 84 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

      Rates of apostasy out of Catholicism are pretty normal, but conversion rates into Catholicism are unusually low for Christian traditions, lower even than many Mainlines.

      3 replies 6 retweets 38 likes
      Show this thread
      Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

      While it's true that Catholicism is a popular conversion destination for disaffected highly educated theologically conservative Protestants, and that group is loud and well-represented in the media, it's like 13 humans in the entire country.

      2:34 AM - 25 Oct 2019
      • 16 Retweets
      • 176 Likes
      • Vehmic Juryman Sharon Kuruvilla 🌹✝️🛡️ Jason Dean 🧲 Toxteth O’Grady, U.S.A. Christopher Johnson ✝️🇺🇸🌐 Eric Cunningham brian Dice Dr. Gripp
      11 replies 16 retweets 176 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          Without immigration, the Catholicism would be declining even faster than the mainlines. That's the unavoidable conclusion from RCC's own data on baptisms as well.

          1 reply 6 retweets 51 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          And, to be clear, it's not because of unusually high rates of people leaving the church. It's because of peculiarly low rates of conversion *into* the church.

          1 reply 4 retweets 30 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          People-not-raised-Catholic make up ~10% of Catholics in America. People-not-raised-Evangelical-Protestant make up 39% of Evangelical Protestants. Here's a graph:pic.twitter.com/7arEu63cvv

          2 replies 10 retweets 48 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          Nor is Catholic fertility particularly high. Here's completed fertility by religious tradition compared to what they would have needed to have in order to grow.pic.twitter.com/QyxYv7Dcbp

          3 replies 5 retweets 30 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          Catholic women had a very similar number of babies as Evangelical Protestant and Historically Black Protestant women. But not enough to offset the negative conversion balance.

          1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          The math for these fertility balances implicitly assume that it's a closed population. This is a way of saying, "Had there been no immigration, Catholicism would be declining as fast or faster than the Mainline."

          1 reply 3 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          Mormons, the nonreligious, Evangelical Protestants, and of course the Amish are all having enough babies to reproduce themselves given current conversion rates. Catholics and Mainliners are not.

          3 replies 6 retweets 24 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          If you assume relative fertility and conversion rates from 1990-2014 are the same for 2014-2104, which would be ridiculous but hey why the heck not make a simplifying assumption, then here's what happens to population shares:pic.twitter.com/ePb6YD9wCO

          1 reply 4 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          Again, this basically assumes zero immigration. In reality there will be immigration. It will especially boost the "Other Religions" and "Catholic" shares, but also may boost, depending on exact details, nonreligious, Mormon/JW, or Evangelical Protestants.

          2 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          So I don't REALLY think this graph represents what WILL happen, because fertility and conversion patterns change over time, and because immigration can cause big changes. But this is still an informative exercise.

          1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          But TO BE CLEAR, it's not that Evangelical Protestants have some marginal advantage over Catholics, as @DouthatNYT would suggest. LITERALLY THE ONLY reason we aren't discussing the massive collapse of Catholicism in America is immigration, @SohrabAhmari .

          2 replies 4 retweets 54 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          And to be clear this is not just a "smaller share but bigger population" thing. No. That's a declining nominal population of Catholics. That's closed churches and empty seminaries.

          1 reply 2 retweets 19 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          I don't say this to gloat. I take no pleasure in the closure of a congregation of people confessing the Creeds and receiving the Lord's Supper, whether Catholic, Lutheran, Baptist, or whatever. I say it because the terms being discussed are just way too chill.

          2 replies 4 retweets 34 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 25 Oct 2019

          Now let me add that I don't really "buy" the Evangelical Protestant numbers. EvProts did well in the 1980s, 1990s, early 2000s, but have taken a turn south since. PRLS data I use is veeeery backward-looking. I suspect the EvProt share is overstated.

          2 replies 2 retweets 26 likes
          Show this thread
        16. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info