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lymanstoneky's profile
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬
@lymanstoneky

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Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬

@lymanstoneky

石來民 Lutheran. Husband. Dad. Kentuckian. Demographer. @DemographicNTEL @FamStudies @AEI @NovakFellows . lymanrstone at gmail dot com

KY-DC-HK-QC
demographicintel.com
Joined July 2012

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    1. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      I try to correct for this to the extent reasonably possible, but my corrections are quite limited. So I do correct for the Jewish head of household issue but I don't correct for Baptist undercount of kids.

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    2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      ugh da luths are the worst sorting out all these synods is gonna be bonkers

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    3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      I'm over here working through the Lutheran almanacs just like, "maybe I should just digitize it all."

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    4. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      well guys 108 different Lutheran denominations, 1740-2017. There are a lot of ways you could classify Lutheran denominations. And many denominations' theological positions have changed over time. I choose to classify by what modern grouping they drifted into.

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    5. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      So here's what we get. Peak Lutheranism was in the early 1960s.... but also oddly enough in the early 1700s too? Though those estimates aren't super confident. Also, the "Lutheran mainline" may soon represent a minority of Lutherans.pic.twitter.com/T0Xu5jlwuA

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    6. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      My ELCA-and-precursors grouping is pretty reductionistic. Many denominations that resisted "American Lutheranism," opposed the General Synod process, and strove to uphold the Lutheran Confessions get lumped in there. But they mostly fought losing battles within their houses.

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    7. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      So like, the General Council was founded as a more conservative rival to the General Synod. And then it.... ultimately merged with the General Synod. Whoopsie!

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    8. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      That said, when somebody broke away from those mainline groups in a confessional/anti-assimilationist/particularist direction, I put them in the "other" group. But actually, LCMC or NALC today are much more progressive than most General Council synods were in the late 1800s.

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    9. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      So these groupings are QUITE loose! But it's too darn hard to go through and class every group by its ever-shifting stance in internecine Lutheran theological feuds. Much easier to classify them based on what current theological streams they fed into.

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    10. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 15 Aug 2019

      FWIW here's ELCA+precursors share of Lutherans over time. The striking thing is that marginally-more-conservative denominations have made up a gradually rising share of Lutherans for a very long time.pic.twitter.com/ICDhmsJdCl

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      Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

      Here's Unitarians, Universalists, and other "liberal faiths" in absolute numbers and % of Pop, 1700-2018. Peak Unitarianism was in 1810.pic.twitter.com/c8uEsZtRAT

      1:21 PM - 17 Aug 2019
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        2. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

          This one was really interesting to me because early American history actually has tons of Unitarians showing up in important places and I'm like, "I literally have only ever met maybe one Unitarian ever?????" and this sort of helps explain what's going on!

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        3. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

          from 1790-1850 there were probably more Unitarian-ish Americans than there were Episcopals which is pretty remarkable IMHO

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        4. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

          oh btw I did baptists. guys since the 1990s like the ground has just fallen out from under American baptist religion. like holy cow what even is going on here.pic.twitter.com/w8CCuzTxVV

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        5. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

          from 15% of the population in the early 1990s to under 10% today. Baptists have lost over *third* of their relative position in society in under 30 years. That is not what I had in my head.

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        6. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

          what's behind this? well, every major subgroup of baptists has seen a decline in its share of US population.pic.twitter.com/iRwCPKNgFr

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        7. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

          and why is that? Well.... it's a BIT tricky to say. The reality is that baptist data is pretty bad in general and data for the Historically Black Baptist denominations is even worse. Data for baptists is sporadic, vague, sometimes overlapping, etc.

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        8. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

          So it's well within the realm of possibility that there's like some start-up denomination of baptists with a quarter of a million members that I'm just completely missing. But you work with what you've got!

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        9. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

          The most consistent and reliable data is reported by the Southern Baptist Convention and it shows the trend I'm talking about tho so I'm reasonably confident that even the less reliable data is showing broadly correct signals in terms of scale and direction.

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        10. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 17 Aug 2019

          time to do Congregationalism

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        11. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          been doing congregationalism but before I share that let me bounce back to Baptists. Like 50 of you responded being all, "well nondenoms are just baptists by another name." Having been raised nondenom I think y'all are smokin' some strong stuff.

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        12. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          Some nondenoms are baptistic. Some are not. The one I grew up in was not particularly Baptist in doctrine at all. But whatever the case, I do have data on nondenoms. US Religion Censuses occur at the *church* level and then *compile* to the denominational level.

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        13. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          The result is that these sources actually pick up a ton of churches with no denominational affiliations (including the one I grew up in). We can compare that data to Pew data on people who report attending non-denominational churches as well and get a decent estimate.

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        14. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          So here's what the graphs look like. If you assume that all nondenominational people are basically just Baptists, here's how things can look. As you can see, even with nondenoms included, the combined grouping is rapidly shrinking.pic.twitter.com/gcnLjC9rkB

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        15. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          Okay now congregationalism. oh dang.pic.twitter.com/y6nVilXcVq

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        16. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          Congregationalism was a big deal in 1700!! Not so much now. Or like any time since 1776.

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        17. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          Several people made wisecracks about the Shakers during this thread and folks I HAVE NOT NEGLECTED THE SHAKERS. Actually I grew up 15 minutes from a very large former Shaker community interestingly enough.

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        18. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          But here I want to compare two different groups: a large communitarian Christian-origin body that eschews babies, and a large communitarian Christian-origin denominational family that is famous for having gigantic families. Note the difference. (cc @JonCoppage )pic.twitter.com/d12QKWdQ51

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        19. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          btw low early growth of Hutterians is largely because there was a lot of indecision early on in the community about Canada vs. USA and where to settle, and also I suspect there was some misreporting in the data.

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        20. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          them: we should grow the church by making disciples not just making babies me:pic.twitter.com/2YMCkgGyBa

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        21. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          *cracks knuckles* it's adventist time

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        22. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          guys Adventism is growing explosively. I did not know this. What are they doing to grow so much????pic.twitter.com/XU3Lpuoa5V

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        23. Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬‏ @lymanstoneky 18 Aug 2019

          Graph for JW's looks pretty similar until very recently btw.pic.twitter.com/MIDBpg710Q

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        24. End of conversation

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