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Luke Muehlhauser
@lukeprog
Open Philanthropy Program Officer, AI Governance and Policy. Summary: openphilanthropy.org/blog/ai-govern
USA East Coastlukeprog.comJoined March 2009

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Many people, including me, have been surprised by recent developments in machine learning. To be less surprised in the future, we should make and discuss specific projections about future models. In this spirit, I predict properties of models in 2030:
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New piece from , and me pushing back on the claim that we can't regulate AI because that would just let China pull ahead. This is not a good argument! 4 reasons why, though first a caveat: 🧵
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“Even if it were true that new AI regulations would slow innovation in the United States—and it very well may not be—China does not appear poised to surge ahead.” trib.al/txcFcJu
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Few things are harder to predict than the ways in which someone much smarter than you might outsmart you. That's the reason I worry about AI. Not just the problem itself, but the meta-problem that the ways the problem might play out are inherently hard to predict.
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Indeed. And I would say this is more than "a bit" alarming.
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I tend to agree with @robertskmiles's statement that "Making safe AGI is like writing a secure operating system." But if so that's a bit alarming, because, like the US tax code, the development of this field was a series of responses to successful exploits.
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It is so heartening to see the gradual emergence of well-respected figures in AI candidly sharing their concerns about existential risks from AI. If this is you, now seems like a great time to speak up!
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I share Geoff’s concerns. It is of the utmost need that we continue to develop intelligent tools responsibly, e.g. to fight disease. As scientists and engineers, it is also our moral imperative to point out existential risks when we suspect them. youtu.be/DsBGaHywRhs
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It's fair to have a general background worldview that's pro-innovation & anti-regulation. But if I found myself saying almost the same thing both about nuclear power (very safe) & the hydrogen bomb (very unsafe), then I'd seriously worry I was leaning too hard on that worldview.
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