You go back in time and tell [person] that [bad thing] will happen if they don't [do something]. As soon as they are convinced, you vanish, because in the new timeline, there was no need for you to go back in time.
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Unfortunately, you vanish *precisely* at the moment that the person is convinced -- mid-sentence, actually! This abrupt disappearance shocks and confuses the person, instilling a degree of doubt... you see where this is going.
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Each time the person swings doubtful, you reappear to persuade them again; but you can never remain corporeal long enough to convince them permanently.
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Right up until the moment [bad thing] actually occurs, your poor subject is still wobbling between 49% and 51% doubtful. Despite your repeated interventions, you've been unable to reduce the chance of catastrophe lower than a coin toss.
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