Lucas Gonzalez

@lucasgonzalez

Have worked to mitigate the next severe-enough flu-pandemic or similar wicked situations. Authored panflu piece in

Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2008.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    1. velj

    Authored for a "severe enough" flu pandemic. Possibly useful for other scenarios. If you use it or develop it, I'd like to know. Thanks.

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 5 sati

    7 years ago I was asked by US Pacific Fleet+ USAID to speak at ASEAN pandemic preparedness meeting-wrote this for myself to think through socio-economic implications: Catastrophic shocks through complex socio-economic systems-a pandemic perspective.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 5 sati
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    Odgovor korisnicima

    The live stream link will be accessible once the lecture begins at 5.15pm 🙂

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    We're hosting a special lecture today at 5.15 pm. From modelling the spread of the outbreak to supporting Africa's response planning, learn more about our latest research. All welcome! Can't make it? Tune into our live stream 👉

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 8 sati

    I’ve written with colleagues before about the importance of investing in a functional modeling capability before the outbreak begins. nCoV should underscore the necessity of that 4/

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    1. velj

    Assessing the extent of mild infections is tricky during early stages of an outbreak, when testing and medical capacity is strained; it requires screening of appropriate populations. Useful methods developed in 2009 influenza epidemic; there was considerable initial uncertainty.

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  8. prije 10 sati

    So, each morning, a team of any level would meet [in their hazmat suits - that's not even funny - ok, sorry] & check if any box has news or needs a push in terms of finding out or acting. would have its own "spreadsheet" on the side. As would "hospital SCIM" etc. Useful?

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  9. prije 10 sati

    Here's my updated version of the "control board" I use in my mind. Good for my . Someone could actually make a page from this, or I can have a go at prototyping it in my homepage in (hoping it doesn't get slashdotted). Each box would have a few details & links.

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    UPDATE 03.02.2020 ▪ 17 383 confirmed cases ▪ 362 fatalities (China 361, the Philippines 1) ▪ cases in several countries in Asia, Australia, North America ▪ 25 cases in Europe ( 6, 10, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1). Read more here:

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  11. prije 16 sati

    Now, it's quite possible that the rubber is hitting the road. We need to learn deep & fast. Even if we're lucky & CFR turns out to be relatively benign. This time. Even if containment works. This time. (good NPI + good vitalSaS) * all humanity. Oh, & & justice. 3/x

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  12. prije 16 sati

    3) That motivates which in turn motivates vital services & supplies. For All Humans. HOW ARE WE GOING TO DO THIS? For flu, w/ many ideas from , , , fluwiki & & , was put together, never to be needed. 2/x

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  13. prije 16 sati

    So... 1) It appears to be spreading. Uncontainable? That's a real possibility, if some say not a certainty. 2) We're not sure of real CFR but will start to find out soon. We need the CFR without hospitals. That's what a chunk of humanity will get. Horrible, right? 1/x

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    Halo!, the unroll you asked for: Thread by : This thread regards US policies and actions intended to prevent spread of nCoV into the US and… . Share this if you think it's interesting. 🤖

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 22 sata

    If nCoV starts spreading in US it's not because USG failed to contain it, it's because it'll have been a dz that was not possible to stop. That needs to be communicated clearly, or the public may lose confidence in the response, and that will make challenges of nCoV worse.(26/x

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 22 sata

    At the start of 2009H1N1 initial case fatality estimates were much higher than would prove to be the case when more data was collected with time. There is good reason to think that CFR in nCoV will also fall substantially when we get more info over time. (25/x)

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 22 sata

    We need pub health agencies, labs, providers to be ready to Dx large numbers of infected much more rapidly than is happening now – there are many day backlogs now. We should also start sentinel surveillance for nCoV around country to see if nCoV already circulating in US.(22/x)

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 23 sata

    Dr Fauci said in today that “Its very, very transmissible and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic, But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.” And this view is shared by a number of top global health leaders. 6/x

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 23 sata

    These new policies raise big concerns. It's understandable US officials are doing what they judge most likely to keep disease from spreading to US, it’s important to consider short & long term consequences and whether these policies will work as planned to contain disease. 5/x

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 23 sata

    The USG approach changed Friday: w/ some exceptions, non-US residents who’ve been to China in last 2 wks are banned; US residents from Wuhan to be quarantined on military bases; other US residents from China to be quarantined in their homes for 2 wks 4/x

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  21. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 23 sata

    This thread regards US policies and actions intended to prevent spread of nCoV into the US and to prepare to respond to a nCoV epidemic within the US. 1/x

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