Expect the same thing to happen this time. Perhaps it’s time for a propaganda wave of “don’t reopen too early” given it might be too late for “don’t close too late”
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they’re using excess pneumonia/influenza death rates of 30/100,000 as “early” in this paper - maybe not too late, but I like the pre-planning spirit
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Looks like
@robinhanson has the right ideas w/ exposing lots of very low risk of mortality groups of people (under 30yo or 40yo) to build herd immunity. W/out vaccines that’s the only way to build herd immunity if you have community transmission. -
lots of unknowns - reinfection seems not only to occur but to be common? but certainly worth extracting data from the natural experiments that occur
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yeah i'm avoiding society for a few months
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i don't trust anyone to get this right
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look we have a gig tomorrow night just wait a min we've been planning too hard
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the hero’s journey includes making a great sacrifice
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They also tried a lot of shit that didn't work like building 10 foot walls around hospitals because they didn't think mosquitos could fly over thempic.twitter.com/PaxgmyhRnU
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walls are for keeping people out, not mosquitoes. they might have just been using false pretenses, it's pretty obvious what it's actually for.
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