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literalbanana's profile
Extraordinary Banana
Extraordinary Banana
Extraordinary Banana
@literalbanana

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Extraordinary Banana

@literalbanana

when the Simulators gave up pretending not to exist they uplifted the bananas first. if you are reading this be aware that words are fake

Joined December 2015

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    1. Richard Yannow‏ @RichardYannow Jan 28
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      Replying to @RichardYannow @spiderfoods and

      And "does take less time to show up" doesn't make any sense to me, if it means which occurs first. Neither occurs until you get HHH, and then whichever flip comes next is 50%. My guess is a reporter credulously paraphrasing without understanding. (But maybe I'm missing something)

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @RichardYannow @spiderfoods and

      Your explanations are exactly correct. The simulation is correct for the phenomenon the OP describes, but the concept is rather contrived and poorly explained, and isn't an interesting result for any practical purposes I can think of (except hustling foolish bettors).

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Extraordinary Banana‏ @literalbanana Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @RichardYannow and

      see https://www.nowpublishers.com/article/OpenAccessDownload/RBE-0092 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @literalbanana @RichardYannow and

      This is a poor example for the bias bias phenomenon Gigerenzer is trying to illustrate. This is a case of not parsing and understanding the problem correctly, not a case of having perceived experience tell us that HHHT is more likely than HHHH.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      This isn't a case of "small sample statistics differing from large sample statistics". In the large sample (large sequence) case, both HHHH and HHHT show up in every iteration if the sequence is large enough.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      In this case it's merely a coincidence that, as he claims, "the human intuition is correct". The human intuition that thinks HHHT should be more likely to "come first" hasn't processed and understood the problem correctly.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Extraordinary Banana‏ @literalbanana Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @RichardYannow and

      curious 1) if you’d say he’s wrong here (screenshotted) and 2) what a better example would be?pic.twitter.com/sCzfaTG2PO

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @literalbanana @RichardYannow and

      He's not wrong, he just describes a phenomenon that isn't as interesting/relevant as he wants it to be, and the description is incomplete. The guy sitting at the wheel is *not* more likely to see RRRB before he sees RRRR. Gigerenzer almost implies that.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. very offline potat‏ @metapotat Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      Actually he is more likely to see a RRRB before a RRRR. The expected waiting time is less. The basic intuition is that when RRRR comes first, RRRB can come on the next spin, and will come as soon as a B comes. But when RRRB comes first, RRRR can't come until RRR happens again.

      4 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    10. very offline potat‏ @metapotat Jan 28
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      Replying to @metapotat @petespetes and

      (this should not affect your betting behavior at the wheel, but that wasn't the question)

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      Extraordinary Banana‏ @literalbanana Jan 28
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      Replying to @metapotat @petespetes and

      I’m having flashbacks to when I was going through the animal literature on the monty hall problem (pigeons, goldfish, etc.) and it was an unbelievable mess

      9:53 PM - 28 Jan 2020
      • 7 Likes
      • Plague Misha Charlie Awbery Adam Strandberg very offline potat Mark (🧘🧪🧙‍♂️💩❤️) sol the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good
      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. very offline potat‏ @metapotat Jan 28
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          Replying to @literalbanana @petespetes and

          Wait, get ready for more mess, I'm backtracking some.... That intuition still only applies across sessions at the wheel. In the same session, it doesn't apply. They're equally likely to come first.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Raymond‏ @rfinz Jan 29
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          Replying to @metapotat @literalbanana and

          Raymond Retweeted Raymond

          https://twitter.com/rfinz/status/1222390589309800448?s=19 … yeah I think that's what I accidentally did here *first* arrival chance always equal

          Raymond added,

          Raymond @rfinz
          Replying to @rfinz @eigenrobot @ajixander
          :( pic.twitter.com/912nHvi8OS
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. 4 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam Strandberg‏ @The_Lagrangian Jan 28
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          Replying to @literalbanana @metapotat and

          surely the animal behind the door shouldn't affect the probabilities 🤔

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Plague Misha‏ @drethelin Jan 29
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          Replying to @The_Lagrangian @literalbanana and

          Actually if you leave your animal behind a door for longer than a minute the probability of a mess is very high

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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          Replying to @literalbanana @metapotat and

          If you want to have some fun with that, go watch the movie 21 again. The solution as presented in the movie is incorrect.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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