This is a poor example for the bias bias phenomenon Gigerenzer is trying to illustrate. This is a case of not parsing and understanding the problem correctly, not a case of having perceived experience tell us that HHHT is more likely than HHHH.
-
-
Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and
This isn't a case of "small sample statistics differing from large sample statistics". In the large sample (large sequence) case, both HHHH and HHHT show up in every iteration if the sequence is large enough.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and
In this case it's merely a coincidence that, as he claims, "the human intuition is correct". The human intuition that thinks HHHT should be more likely to "come first" hasn't processed and understood the problem correctly.
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @petespetes @RichardYannow and
curious 1) if you’d say he’s wrong here (screenshotted) and 2) what a better example would be?pic.twitter.com/sCzfaTG2PO
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @literalbanana @RichardYannow and
He's not wrong, he just describes a phenomenon that isn't as interesting/relevant as he wants it to be, and the description is incomplete. The guy sitting at the wheel is *not* more likely to see RRRB before he sees RRRR. Gigerenzer almost implies that.
3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and
But if he sits at the wheel 30 days in a row, there will be more days he sees at least one RRRB than days he sees at least one RRRR. And that's just because every day he sees an RRRR there's going to be an RRRB following it very shortly unless the wheel gets stuck on RRRRRRRRRRRR
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and
yeah, his claim is true bc each HHHH (or RRRR) sequence has a 50% chance of ALSO forming part of an HHHT sequence (the next roll is either H or T) - hence 50 v 75% i fail to see how this helps w roulette unless you convince someone to make a v strange extended side bet with you
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @realjdburnett @literalbanana and
Exactly. And someone quickly skimming this article or someone who just isn't thinking about it sufficiently deeply might walk away from it thinking he now has a system to beat the casino. This exemplifies some of the many problems with modern academic research pretty nicely.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and
the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good Retweeted the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good
surely no one is that stupidhttps://twitter.com/realjdburnett/status/1217711241436762112?s=19 …
the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good added,
the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good @realjdburnettReplying to @eigenrobotreminds me of one of the best/worst day of my life when as a teen i independently reinvented the martingale roulette strategy before realizing the flaw thought i was about to start printing money there for a few hours and only learned years later that i wasn't the first1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @realjdburnett @petespetes and
tldr - works great if you're infinitely wealthy
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
bankroll is context
-
-
Replying to @literalbanana @petespetes and
gotta have infinite money to make infinite money
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
This Tweet is unavailable.
- 2 more replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.