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literalbanana's profile
Extraordinary Banana
Extraordinary Banana
Extraordinary Banana
@literalbanana

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Extraordinary Banana

@literalbanana

when the Simulators gave up pretending not to exist they uplifted the bananas first. if you are reading this be aware that words are fake

Joined December 2015

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    1. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @literalbanana @RichardYannow and

      This is a poor example for the bias bias phenomenon Gigerenzer is trying to illustrate. This is a case of not parsing and understanding the problem correctly, not a case of having perceived experience tell us that HHHT is more likely than HHHH.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      This isn't a case of "small sample statistics differing from large sample statistics". In the large sample (large sequence) case, both HHHH and HHHT show up in every iteration if the sequence is large enough.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      In this case it's merely a coincidence that, as he claims, "the human intuition is correct". The human intuition that thinks HHHT should be more likely to "come first" hasn't processed and understood the problem correctly.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Extraordinary Banana‏ @literalbanana Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @RichardYannow and

      curious 1) if you’d say he’s wrong here (screenshotted) and 2) what a better example would be?pic.twitter.com/sCzfaTG2PO

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @literalbanana @RichardYannow and

      He's not wrong, he just describes a phenomenon that isn't as interesting/relevant as he wants it to be, and the description is incomplete. The guy sitting at the wheel is *not* more likely to see RRRB before he sees RRRR. Gigerenzer almost implies that.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      But if he sits at the wheel 30 days in a row, there will be more days he sees at least one RRRB than days he sees at least one RRRR. And that's just because every day he sees an RRRR there's going to be an RRRB following it very shortly unless the wheel gets stuck on RRRRRRRRRRRR

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good‏ @realjdburnett Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      yeah, his claim is true bc each HHHH (or RRRR) sequence has a 50% chance of ALSO forming part of an HHHT sequence (the next roll is either H or T) - hence 50 v 75% i fail to see how this helps w roulette unless you convince someone to make a v strange extended side bet with you

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @realjdburnett @literalbanana and

      Exactly. And someone quickly skimming this article or someone who just isn't thinking about it sufficiently deeply might walk away from it thinking he now has a system to beat the casino. This exemplifies some of the many problems with modern academic research pretty nicely.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good‏ @realjdburnett Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good Retweeted the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good

      surely no one is that stupidhttps://twitter.com/realjdburnett/status/1217711241436762112?s=19 …

      the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good added,

      the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good @realjdburnett
      Replying to @eigenrobot
      reminds me of one of the best/worst day of my life when as a teen i independently reinvented the martingale roulette strategy before realizing the flaw thought i was about to start printing money there for a few hours and only learned years later that i wasn't the first
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good‏ @realjdburnett Jan 28
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      Replying to @realjdburnett @petespetes and

      tldr - works great if you're infinitely wealthy

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Extraordinary Banana‏ @literalbanana Jan 28
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      Replying to @realjdburnett @petespetes and

      bankroll is context

      9:11 PM - 28 Jan 2020
      • 1 Like
      • the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good‏ @realjdburnett Jan 28
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          Replying to @literalbanana @petespetes and

          gotta have infinite money to make infinite money

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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