One Netflix show causing a 29% increase in suicide rates? Numbers like these from studies with ‘adjusted for’ stats should cause an immediate reaction of “Nope” or less politely “Bullshit.”https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1123240275869040640 …
when the Simulators gave up pretending not to exist they uplifted the bananas first. contact official intern @snus_mumrikken for beef scheduling
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Eliezer Yudkowsky Retweeted zeynep tufekci
One Netflix show causing a 29% increase in suicide rates? Numbers like these from studies with ‘adjusted for’ stats should cause an immediate reaction of “Nope” or less politely “Bullshit.”https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1123240275869040640 …
Eliezer Yudkowsky added,
If I had to pin down in one word what makes me leery here, it would be "preregistration". They say Netflix was warned in advance. Okay, so how about publishing in advance exactly what stats you'll use, like the "10-17" age range and month-by-month statistics?
To put it more sharply, imagine a Rationalist's Bet on this. You would demand the bettor specify age range, time range, and required effect size *in advance*. You would *not* accept, "I bet $500 that after this show airs, I can find some kind of increase in suicide rates."
How did this study end up happening? Did somebody notice a spike in a particular measured suicide rate, wonder what happened in April, and decide the Netflix show was at fault? Did they try the 9-20 age range first, and not find a jump? We can't know without preregistration.
Sure, the Werther effect is a thing. But there's only so much causality to go around in the world - like that Slate Star post I can't seem to find offhand, where Scott went through studies accounting for 1200% of all cancers or 300% of all mortality or whatever it was.
it’s not clear that it’s a thinghttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0108724 …
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