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literalbanana's profile
Ordinary Banana
Ordinary Banana
Ordinary Banana
@literalbanana

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Ordinary Banana

@literalbanana

when the Simulators gave up pretending not to exist they uplifted the bananas first. contact official intern @snus_mumrikken for beef scheduling

Joined December 2015

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    1. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Apr 30
      • Report Tweet

      Eliezer Yudkowsky Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      One Netflix show causing a 29% increase in suicide rates? Numbers like these from studies with ‘adjusted for’ stats should cause an immediate reaction of “Nope” or less politely “Bullshit.”https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1123240275869040640 …

      Eliezer Yudkowsky added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      When @netflix chose to release and promote a show about a teen who committed suicide, experts warned that it could to cause an increase in suicides especially among adolescents. Now, research finds that's exactly what happened. https://www.nimh.nih.gov/news/science-news/2019/release-of-13-reasons-why-associated-with-increase-in-youth-suicide-rates.shtml … pic.twitter.com/me1QMTDxSt
      Show this thread
      5 replies 39 retweets 274 likes
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    2. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Apr 30
      • Report Tweet

      If I had to pin down in one word what makes me leery here, it would be "preregistration". They say Netflix was warned in advance. Okay, so how about publishing in advance exactly what stats you'll use, like the "10-17" age range and month-by-month statistics?

      3 replies 3 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Apr 30
      • Report Tweet

      To put it more sharply, imagine a Rationalist's Bet on this. You would demand the bettor specify age range, time range, and required effect size *in advance*. You would *not* accept, "I bet $500 that after this show airs, I can find some kind of increase in suicide rates."

      1 reply 1 retweet 37 likes
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    4. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Apr 30
      • Report Tweet

      How did this study end up happening? Did somebody notice a spike in a particular measured suicide rate, wonder what happened in April, and decide the Netflix show was at fault? Did they try the 9-20 age range first, and not find a jump? We can't know without preregistration.

      2 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
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    5. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Apr 30
      • Report Tweet

      Sure, the Werther effect is a thing. But there's only so much causality to go around in the world - like that Slate Star post I can't seem to find offhand, where Scott went through studies accounting for 1200% of all cancers or 300% of all mortality or whatever it was.

      3 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
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      Ordinary Banana‏ @literalbanana May 3
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @ESYudkowsky

      it’s not clear that it’s a thinghttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0108724 …

      11:10 AM - 3 May 2019
      • 2 Likes
      • Santi
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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