TIPS ETF $TIP also has been seeing outflow the last monthpic.twitter.com/FdH63973a3
Inflation expectations for the next five years have dropped since earlier this year, heading to end the year just where it started. Here are 5-year breakeven rates:pic.twitter.com/gfCqY1Lgmm
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interesting, thanks
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Yes, although WTI has pulled back a little less YTD. But yes - this was my thought. Inflation expectations are pretty closely following oil
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Your axis makes 15 bp look like a huge swing.
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Sorry 20 bp
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Is it oil or more the worry of Fed becoming restrictive next year?
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Great opportunity to buy TIPS, IMO, with real yields having risen and breakevens now well below current CPI levels.
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if you are correct, that is during the next five years, lots of "undetermined shit" is going to happen and you haven't factored it in
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With WTI crude oil still up YTD, the drop in inflation expectations (mainly in the front-end of the curve) is a result of the recent backup in real treasury rates as Fed rate hikes expectations are pushed down.
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