Liron Shapira

@liron

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Vrijeme pridruživanja: srpanj 2008.

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  1. prije 3 sata

    If you want to do something calm and mature, don't hold a fixed quantity of an asset, hold a fixed *portfolio fraction* of an asset. The more you like TSLA's upside, the higher fraction of your net worth you should choose to make it. Rebalance as needed to *hold* the percentage!

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  2. prije 3 sata

    Imagine you put 5% of your net worth into TSLA thinking it’ll double in 3 years (grow 26%/yr). If it then unexpectedly doubles in 1 month, what are the chances your new investment decision should now be "put 10% of my net worth in TSLA"? Very unlikely, probably just "hold bias"

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  3. prije 3 sata

    In light of the TSLA stock craziness, I want to point out that a “hold” decision is probably dumb. Holding an asset intuitively feels like the calm mature thing to do, but if its price is moving up/down wildly, you should be selling/buying some, respectively.

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  4. 2. velj

    I'm pumped for Superbowl IA. Go Indiana Mayors!

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  5. 28. sij

    Startup idea: Tourist-grade healthcare for US residents. Bypass the US health insurance system, provide subscription service of envelope-pushing telemedicine and reimbursed trips to things like Oklahoma Surgery Center & nearby foreign/offshore hospitals. Why wouldn't this work?

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  6. 26. sij

    There's a lot of social capital sloshing around the ecosystem. And social capital isn't taxed the way financial capital is. More generally, it isn't systematically tracked and valued right now, which is at the root of the big opportunity in consumer social.

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  7. 26. sij

    Most of us would opt for our social capital over our financial capital. (I personally would, because savings would take me less time and effort to rebuild to a comfortable state.)

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  8. 26. sij

    "Imagine a devil showed up and said, 'you must either give me all your money, or give up your identity, your name and your face, and none of your friends will remember who you are again.'"

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  9. 26. sij

    Social capital is worth a lot, but we don't currently have an institution that measures how much of it you have. How do you value your social capital? What's the exchange rate to financial capital?

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  10. 26. sij

    Facebook originally gave you social status for being part of its restricted set of colleges. Early users of Twitter ended up getting lots of free promotion from the platform, and today have millions of followers. Early users of Bitcoin could easily buy or mine tons of BTC.

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  11. 26. sij

    Since the value of a network grows quadratically with its user base (Metcalfe's Law), the first user receives the least value up front, but helps you create lots of value down the road. So it makes sense to design some kind of quadratically decreasing incentive for users to join.

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  12. 26. sij

    LinkedIn's connection model doesn't make sense because building an edge has no cost. Many people accept many requests from strangers.

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  13. 26. sij

    When you build an edge on Facebook, the cost is giving up some privacy by revealing your personal content. When you build an edge on Twitter, the cost is that you have to put up with seeing their content in your feed.

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  14. 26. sij

    Imagine that building an edge in a social graph is like building a segment of railroad track: it enables movement of valuable goods, and also has a cost.

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  15. 26. sij

    Small variations in a platform's design choices can have large effects on its character. Instagram disallows external links, a choice that hugely affected what content gets shared, e.g. few news stories.

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  16. 26. sij

    My own thought: Or maybe instead of a dynamic to "force" people to follow you, a new social network could empower you to "allow" certain people to follow you. Would count as this because you're allowing people who pay you to follow you?

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  17. 26. sij

    On Facebook, you click to friend someone and they have to agree and friend you back. On Twitter, you click to unidirectionally follow someone. There's no network yet whose graph-building rule is that you can't decide to follow someone, but you can force them to follow you 😂

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  18. 26. sij

    To understand a social network, understand how the graph gets built. Instagram and Snapchat lead users to build similar graphs, but Facebook and Twitter's graphs come out very different.

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  19. 26. sij

    New social networks will probably emerge on a regular basis. You don't want to listen to your parents' music. Teens don't want to use parents' social network. Hard to compete with entrenched status on older networks. Tempting to play a new game where you can be higher status.

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  20. 26. sij

    Thanks to and for sharing some deep insights about social networks on the latest Venture Stories podcast with Thread of my notes and takeaways...

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