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If you want to do something calm and mature, don't hold a fixed quantity of an asset, hold a fixed *portfolio fraction* of an asset. The more you like TSLA's upside, the higher fraction of your net worth you should choose to make it. Rebalance as needed to *hold* the percentage!
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Imagine you put 5% of your net worth into TSLA thinking it’ll double in 3 years (grow 26%/yr). If it then unexpectedly doubles in 1 month, what are the chances your new investment decision should now be "put 10% of my net worth in TSLA"? Very unlikely, probably just "hold bias"
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
In light of the TSLA stock craziness, I want to point out that a “hold” decision is probably dumb. Holding an asset intuitively feels like the calm mature thing to do, but if its price is moving up/down wildly, you should be selling/buying some, respectively.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
I'm pumped for Superbowl IA. Go Indiana Mayors!
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Startup idea: Tourist-grade healthcare for US residents. Bypass the US health insurance system, provide subscription service of envelope-pushing telemedicine and reimbursed trips to things like Oklahoma Surgery Center & nearby foreign/offshore hospitals. Why wouldn't this work?
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
There's a lot of social capital sloshing around the ecosystem. And social capital isn't taxed the way financial capital is. More generally, it isn't systematically tracked and valued right now, which is at the root of the big opportunity in consumer social.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Most of us would opt for our social capital over our financial capital. (I personally would, because savings would take me less time and effort to rebuild to a comfortable state.)
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
"Imagine a devil showed up and said, 'you must either give me all your money, or give up your identity, your name and your face, and none of your friends will remember who you are again.'"
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Social capital is worth a lot, but we don't currently have an institution that measures how much of it you have. How do you value your social capital? What's the exchange rate to financial capital?
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Facebook originally gave you social status for being part of its restricted set of colleges. Early users of Twitter ended up getting lots of free promotion from the platform, and today have millions of followers. Early users of Bitcoin could easily buy or mine tons of BTC.
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Since the value of a network grows quadratically with its user base (Metcalfe's Law), the first user receives the least value up front, but helps you create lots of value down the road. So it makes sense to design some kind of quadratically decreasing incentive for users to join.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
LinkedIn's connection model doesn't make sense because building an edge has no cost. Many people accept many requests from strangers.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
When you build an edge on Facebook, the cost is giving up some privacy by revealing your personal content. When you build an edge on Twitter, the cost is that you have to put up with seeing their content in your feed.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Imagine that building an edge in a social graph is like building a segment of railroad track: it enables movement of valuable goods, and also has a cost.
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Small variations in a platform's design choices can have large effects on its character. Instagram disallows external links, a choice that hugely affected what content gets shared, e.g. few news stories.
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My own thought: Or maybe instead of a dynamic to "force" people to follow you, a new social network could empower you to "allow" certain people to follow you. Would
@Substack count as this because you're allowing people who pay you to follow you?Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
On Facebook, you click to friend someone and they have to agree and friend you back. On Twitter, you click to unidirectionally follow someone. There's no network yet whose graph-building rule is that you can't decide to follow someone, but you can force them to follow you
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To understand a social network, understand how the graph gets built. Instagram and Snapchat lead users to build similar graphs, but Facebook and Twitter's graphs come out very different.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
New social networks will probably emerge on a regular basis. You don't want to listen to your parents' music. Teens don't want to use parents' social network. Hard to compete with entrenched status on older networks. Tempting to play a new game where you can be higher status.
Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Thanks to
@lessin and@rsg for sharing some deep insights about social networks on the latest@villageglobal Venture Stories podcast with@eriktorenberg https://www.spreaker.com/user/10197011/sam-lessin-and-bobby-goodlatte-on-the-fu … Thread of my notes and takeaways...Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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