LA County June 19th Update (2/2) Hospitalizations, estimated discharges, deaths, age distributions - nothing notable that hasn't already been covered.pic.twitter.com/fZkISVnuqB
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LA County June 21st Update (1/2) Record 7-day avg cases. Lowest 7-day avg deaths since 4/15. 7-Day Averages: 1549 avg new cases/day
(record)
56 " " hospitalizations/day
30 " " deaths/day
20.3k " " test results/day
6.5% positive new tests
4.0% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/cO1LYCaWNf
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LA County June 21st Update (2/2) The uptick in cases seems to primarily be in the 18-65 age group. Interestingly the 0-17 group isn't seeing the same trend - this could be a function of protestor age, OR possibly due to them being less symptomatic (or both?)pic.twitter.com/UbqZKs7QrR
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LA County June 21st Correction Thank you
@magooskee77 for catching - 7.3% positive new tests 3.8% new cases hospitalizedShow this thread -
LA County June 22nd Update (1/4) Record 7-day avg cases (again) and no backlog. 7-Day Averages: 1763 avg new cases/day
(record)
57 " " hospitalizations/day
31 " " deaths/day
19.3k " " test results/day
9.0% positive new tests
3.3% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/yeQdqnhOY1
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LA County June 22nd Update (2/4) One thing that caught my attention - is this the hospitalization-to-death lag shown visually? Suggests a 4-week progression which is higher than I thought, but the curves are very similar, and earlier hospitalization data seems unreliable.pic.twitter.com/DZ4tEee6ls
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LA County June 22nd Update (3/4) LA County reported an 8.4% positive rate from the past 7d, whereas I'm calculating 9.0% If I understood correctly, they're averaging each day's positivity rate. Mathematically, this is incorrect, because each day should not be weighted equally.pic.twitter.com/TJrvDQygws
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LA County June 22nd Update (4/4) Well, there's our protest spike! Unfortunately, the update today bucks the trend of declines in the 65+ age group. Fortunately, the weight of new cases is going to the 18-40 age group and 40-65 age group, with a smaller increase under 18.pic.twitter.com/DSRtPax6ML
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LA County June 22nd Update For those following, apparently Dr. Ferrer did connect the recent surge to the protests too (I didn't verify her quote tho) It's harder to see it in the episode-date-based data, which is incomplete for the recent time period. https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/1275204296372482048 …pic.twitter.com/X0Xo1XC9vD
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LA County June 23rd Update (1/3) Record high avg cases, record low % hospitalized
7-Day Averages:
1909 avg new cases/day (record)
59 " " hospitalizations/day
30 " " deaths/day
19.7k " " test results/day
9.6% positive new tests
3.1% new cases hospitalized (record)pic.twitter.com/wftzYJ8MdV
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LA County June 23rd Update (2/3) It makes sense that % hospitalized would be low if case counts are going up. Hospitalizations are going up too, just not as quickly - hopefully this isn't because they "lag."pic.twitter.com/Iqi9CSPdjH
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LA County June 23rd Update (3/3) Have gotten some Qs about linking spikes & protests on the grounds that other cities like NYC didn't see a similar uptick. I have a hunch that Angelenos are less likely to wear masks. Regardless, the spike continues in the 18-64 age group.pic.twitter.com/RgU9dPznrK
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Getting national recognition on our record day... LA, I knew you were special
... 
https://abcnews.go.com/US/los-angeles-county-now-leading-nation-coronavirus-cases/story?id=71425749&cid=social_twitter_abcn …Show this thread -
LA County June 24th Update (1/3) Pretty flat day overall, 2nd highest day of cases (yesterday is the record). 7-Day Averages: 1785 avg new cases/day
56 " " hospitalizations/day
31 " " deaths/day
19.4k " " test results/day
9.0% positive new tests
3.2% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/Nk88wj3Olf
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LA County June 24th Update (2/3) Deaths trending downward from an average in the 40s, but hospitalizations are drifting up - not a good sign.pic.twitter.com/51K3HPGwen
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LA County June 24th Update (3/3) The spike is less pronounced in the LA County episode-date-based dataset than in the age-based reports, but it's still there. Will be able to tell in hindsight when more data comes in.pic.twitter.com/rRadVa60em
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LA County June 25th Update (1/2) I've feared that they'd change metrics & block progress tracking. Just as we were set to hit 1m tests, reporting stopped
7-Day Avg:
1923 avg new cases/day (record)
62 " " hospitaliztns/day
31 " " deaths/day
3.3% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/QyrRgM322k
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LA County June 25th Update (2/2) Clear concerning upward trend on hospitalizations. I'm still iffy on hospital data quality. We've already seen that it doesn't add up, & they've deprioritized the ever-hospitalized metric. Changing which numbers they report is a huge data risk.pic.twitter.com/LSaLNIAsdx
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LA County June 25th Update Addendum: Thanks to those who pointed out testing stats on the website. DK if it's same metric I've been using (didn't qualify LB+Pas before), but it falls in line (report said 15k/day, this metric added 17k) Averages: 9.4% positive 20.0 tests/daypic.twitter.com/ZgECmbV7Qn
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And uh...expect to see testing numbers go down? I'm trying to wrap my head around why they would do this? (thanks
@NajeebTarazi )@davideryu can you come back and save us with another test infusion please
https://twitter.com/skarlamangla/status/1275547867134844928 …
LA officials say the lack of covid testing appointments is because they’re making fewer appointments available to people
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LA County June 26th Update (1/3) Record high cases, deaths esp. low. Testing data back in
7-Day Averages
1979 avg new cases/day (record)
65 " " hospitalizations/day
29 " " deaths/day
18.4k " " test results/day
10.6% positive new tests
3.3% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/rTEY2cH1k9
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LA County June 26th Update (2/3) I previously wondered if deaths might lag hospitaliztns by ~4 wks in LA. Eric Topol suggested similar yesterday (& has since retracted b/c NJ data issue) - so we'll see? Not a good trend on current hospitalizations. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1276502839431294977 …pic.twitter.com/1dHj0R5iwJ
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LA County June 26th Update (3/3) 7-day average deaths is lowest since April 15th! That's more than two months ago
pic.twitter.com/wYvSQ0hKBy
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LA County June 27th Update (1/3) We've been exponential-ish, so daily records may continue. 7-Day Averages: 1995 avg new cases/day
(record)
59 " " hospitalizations/day
25 " " deaths/day
18.4k " " test results/day
11.4% positive new tests
3.0% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/hyrS9j9HMw
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LA County June 27th Update (2/3) Lowest 7-day average deaths since April 13th. Current hospitalizations continue to trend upwards.pic.twitter.com/VWyEJM1IyC
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LA County June 27th Update (3/3) 18-40 year-olds continue to be the main driver. It's fascinating to me how they diverged from 40-64 age group at the end of May. (It makes sense in hindsight, it's just interesting still).pic.twitter.com/XC2ayLXhfh
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The state of NY has a population of ~20M and 869 current hospitalizations (includes NYC - 8.4M population). The county of LA has ~10m and 1687 current patients (includes LA - 4m pop). So LA has about 1/2 the population and 2x the hospitalizations
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1277240773973508096 …pic.twitter.com/FNWaZLJRV0
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LA County June 28th Update (1/3) We did it...we broke 2k average daily cases....
7-Day Averages:
2103 avg new cases/day (record)
62 " " hospitalizations/day
26 " " deaths/day
15.9k " " test results/day
13.1% positive new tests
3.0% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/jcOGMbCVA1
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LA County June 28th Update (2/3) Sharp drop in testing at a time we're seeing an increase in cases. That shows that 1) the increase in cases is very much real (and new measures may be warranted) 2) can't blame "increased" testing what we're seeing.pic.twitter.com/3GPDG2GfiC
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LA County June 28th Update (3/3) Again, it's *really* the 18-40 year olds that are the problem. The new measures largely target that and seem warranted. Concerned about the gradual increase in the 65+ age group and what that will mean for hospitalizations and deaths later on.pic.twitter.com/OZjNY9JSSO
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There were have it - we're #2 on the hardest hit counties in the US, based on the past 14 days.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1277324161409564672?s=19 …
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LA County June 29th Update (1/3) Crossed 100k cases. Record single-day & avg new cases. 7-Day Averages: 2151 avg new cases/day
(record)
66 " " hospitalizations/day
27 " " deaths/day
18.4k " " test results/day
11.5% positive new tests
3.1% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/HmkXpezAmL
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LA County June 29th Update (2/3) Key indicators are up, notably hospitalizations - except for "current" hospitalizations (meaning discharges
).
Deaths have started to increase ever so slightly, I'll will wait for something more meaningful before I try to figure out the "lag."pic.twitter.com/jVAnOhrmjS
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