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LA County June 17th Update (1/4)
Another 600-case backlog, 6 days since the last 
7-Day Averages:
1514 avg new cases/day 
(record)
55 " " hospitalizations/day 
32 " " deaths/day
17.4k " " test results/day
8.3% positive new tests
3.8% new cases hospitalized pic.twitter.com/YEtcb7eKY3
LA County June 17th Update (2/4)
Everyone's wondering if the protests are showing up, & I agree with @nataliexdean here.
Some charts showing cases by age as reported by LA County (excludes LB + Pas)
18-40: jumped up ~1wk after Memorial
65+: declining
https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1273264256767664128 …pic.twitter.com/KQAyyLWkcR
LA County June 17th Update (3/4)
My fears about hospitalization data have been confirmed: "ever" and "current" do not add up - unless 51 people were re-hospitalized yesterday 
Included death + hospitalization trends cc: @jayeskenazipic.twitter.com/o7Lshf1I1P
LA County June 17th Update (4/4)
@javier_serrano1 observed yesterday that the reported numbers lag behind @calmatters by a day - predicting today's 1420 numbers.
If so, we'll see 1429 tomorrow.
Even if it lags a day, the numbers still do not add up!
https://twitter.com/javier_serrano1/status/1273016299728199681 …pic.twitter.com/i0Tw3lI1B3
@CalMatters data available here. They also share their dataset which I haven't looked at myself for those interested
https://calmatters.org/health/coronavirus/2020/04/california-coronavirus-covid-patient-hospitalization-data-icu/ …pic.twitter.com/C4gJndc9zP
LA County June 18th Update (1/2)
Testing rebounding, but not completely.
7-Day Averages:
1398 avg new cases/day
53 " " hospitalizations/day
31 " " deaths/day
17.4k " " test results/day
7.7% positive new tests
4.0% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/7x2U1KgwNj
LA County June 18th Update (2/2) CalMatters reporting +17 net current hospitalizations for tomorrow.pic.twitter.com/xxsgXb6Not
LA County June 19th Update (1/2)
Nothing interesting to report.
7-Day Averages:
1368 avg new cases/day
55 " " hospitalizations/day
33 " " deaths/day
18.6k " " test results/day
7.0% positive new tests
4.2% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/f3TIXW5KTr
LA County June 19th Update (2/2) Hospitalizations, estimated discharges, deaths, age distributions - nothing notable that hasn't already been covered.pic.twitter.com/fZkISVnuqB
LA County June 20th Update (1/3)
7-Day Averages:
1437 avg new cases/day
55 " " hospitalizations/day
31 " " deaths/day
21.1k " " test results/day
6.5% positive new tests
4.0% new cases hospitalized
Another backlog day, it looks flat but a few things worth mentioning:pic.twitter.com/eGNkPKzREN
LA County June 20th Update (2/3) The first is that testing appears to have rebounded to pre-protest levels - hopefully stays there. Positivity rates are the lowest since May 29th (accounting for lags, ~post-Memorial Day). This is *in spite* of protest data we'd expect to see.pic.twitter.com/Lc2gsCcZRT
LA County June 20th Update (3/3) The window for the anticipated "spike" from the protests is closing. AFAICT, the lift we're seeing is mostly from Mem. Day on, with another small jump around ~6/12 for the 18-40 age group. With protests + reopening it's hard to pin it.pic.twitter.com/DUmIjk7v2w
LA County Notes (1/4): One recurring pattern I've come across: LA County actually seems to mirror the US on several metrics. Other than some abnormalities in mid-April, look at how similar these charts look. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1274144871012397056 …pic.twitter.com/GSNopNc4A2
LA County Notes (2/4):
Timing's important to understand the data, especially w/ 3 backlogs + a retraction confounding things.
Took stab @lapublichealth's episode data. Added the 7-day avg to smooth out the noise.
Reminder: recent data is incomplete.
https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1245693392568360960 …pic.twitter.com/VEDtLKEKqY
LA County Notes (3/4): There are many reasons "why" cases can be increasing: Re-open? Holiday? Protests? Attitude? Testing? Testing is least likely given the protest closures. Looks like big jump is ~5 days after Memorial. More minor ~5 days after protests.
LA County Notes (4/4): And to add context, here's what we know about mobility from Apple, Google, and OpenTable. Steadily increasing, not in spikes, which also indicates a gradual shift in attitudes is at play. Re-graphed the Google & OpenTable data.pic.twitter.com/GhiVsjzkZm
LA County Notes (5/4):
OK one more, @OpenTable comparison of LA, CA, and US.
I was actually a little surprised to see LA trail CA on this. Thought we were the state rebels but I guess that honor will have to go to Orange County (not in data set).pic.twitter.com/fvkXguSo8l
LA County June 21st Update (1/2)
Record 7-day avg cases.
Lowest 7-day avg deaths since 4/15.
7-Day Averages:
1549 avg new cases/day (record)
56 " " hospitalizations/day
30 " " deaths/day
20.3k " " test results/day
6.5% positive new tests
4.0% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/cO1LYCaWNf
LA County June 21st Update (2/2) The uptick in cases seems to primarily be in the 18-65 age group. Interestingly the 0-17 group isn't seeing the same trend - this could be a function of protestor age, OR possibly due to them being less symptomatic (or both?)pic.twitter.com/UbqZKs7QrR
LA County June 21st Correction
Thank you @magooskee77 for catching -
7.3% positive new tests
3.8% new cases hospitalized
LA County June 22nd Update (1/4)
Record 7-day avg cases (again) and no backlog.
7-Day Averages:
1763 avg new cases/day (record)
57 " " hospitalizations/day
31 " " deaths/day
19.3k " " test results/day
9.0% positive new tests
3.3% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/yeQdqnhOY1
LA County June 22nd Update (2/4) One thing that caught my attention - is this the hospitalization-to-death lag shown visually? Suggests a 4-week progression which is higher than I thought, but the curves are very similar, and earlier hospitalization data seems unreliable.pic.twitter.com/DZ4tEee6ls
LA County June 22nd Update (3/4) LA County reported an 8.4% positive rate from the past 7d, whereas I'm calculating 9.0% If I understood correctly, they're averaging each day's positivity rate. Mathematically, this is incorrect, because each day should not be weighted equally.pic.twitter.com/TJrvDQygws
LA County June 22nd Update (4/4) Well, there's our protest spike! Unfortunately, the update today bucks the trend of declines in the 65+ age group. Fortunately, the weight of new cases is going to the 18-40 age group and 40-65 age group, with a smaller increase under 18.pic.twitter.com/DSRtPax6ML
LA County June 22nd Update For those following, apparently Dr. Ferrer did connect the recent surge to the protests too (I didn't verify her quote tho) It's harder to see it in the episode-date-based data, which is incomplete for the recent time period. https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/1275204296372482048 …pic.twitter.com/X0Xo1XC9vD
LA County June 23rd Update (1/3)
Record high avg cases, record low % hospitalized 
7-Day Averages:
1909 avg new cases/day (record)
59 " " hospitalizations/day
30 " " deaths/day
19.7k " " test results/day
9.6% positive new tests
3.1% new cases hospitalized (record)pic.twitter.com/wftzYJ8MdV
LA County June 23rd Update (2/3) It makes sense that % hospitalized would be low if case counts are going up. Hospitalizations are going up too, just not as quickly - hopefully this isn't because they "lag."pic.twitter.com/Iqi9CSPdjH
LA County June 23rd Update (3/3) Have gotten some Qs about linking spikes & protests on the grounds that other cities like NYC didn't see a similar uptick. I have a hunch that Angelenos are less likely to wear masks. Regardless, the spike continues in the 18-64 age group.pic.twitter.com/RgU9dPznrK
Getting national recognition on our record day... LA, I knew you were special 
... https://abcnews.go.com/US/los-angeles-county-now-leading-nation-coronavirus-cases/story?id=71425749&cid=social_twitter_abcn …
LA County June 24th Update (1/3)
Pretty flat day overall, 2nd highest day of cases (yesterday is the record).
7-Day Averages:
1785 avg new cases/day
56 " " hospitalizations/day
31 " " deaths/day
19.4k " " test results/day
9.0% positive new tests
3.2% new cases hospitalizedpic.twitter.com/Nk88wj3Olf
LA County June 24th Update (2/3) Deaths trending downward from an average in the 40s, but hospitalizations are drifting up - not a good sign.pic.twitter.com/51K3HPGwen
LA County June 24th Update (3/3) The spike is less pronounced in the LA County episode-date-based dataset than in the age-based reports, but it's still there. Will be able to tell in hindsight when more data comes in.pic.twitter.com/rRadVa60em
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Current hospitalized is lowest since June 1st.
Based on the last chart, I'd guess uptick in hospitalizations is related to Memorial Day.
