If the impact of a design idea is easily predicted it's probably because it is a well worn idea and won't feel that significant to the player anyway, and if that's the case you don't need it in the game early in development.
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On the other hand, if you have a impactful idea, it's usually a new take on something. You're not going to be able to reliably predict how it will feel to the player. The goal becomes testing the idea in the fastest & cheapest way possible.
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You can pick up most of what's useful to know about game design theory in a few years of reading and GDC review. Knowing what to build *next* for your game takes experience and constant study, and is most often done wrong.
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This is true at many levels. It's hard to know what features to prioritize for a project as a whole. It's hard to know how much to polish a feature now versus later. It's hard to know how to spend your day.
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When I look back on the big projects I've shipped, it's priority decisions that determined the successes and failures. Theory helps you identify blind spots in your ideas, but good process is what illuminates those ideas.
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