Leon Fu

Regardless of whether the success rate is 3%, 1%, or less, do you realize what the ROI is on an early tech investment that eventually reaches multi-billion valuations?

Right, so, if we evaluate these projects regardless of the success rate, I'd assume the ROI is the same as a lottery ticket.

Yes ROI’s, are lottery like, but the success rates are of magnitudes higher. Remember you’re far more likely to die falling out of bed than hitting the lottery. Calculate this for yourself. Had you put $1 in say 50 random ICO’s from ‘14 to ‘16 what would your returns have been?

Ethereum’s ICO alone, one of the biggest crowd fund in history returned over $4000 to $1 on its ICO price. As long as you got that one, the other 49 could’ve gone to zero.

That's reasonable. So, maybe the successful strategy is to beat the trend, and buy the first mover?

Not always. Facebook and Google were not first movers in their areas. IMO, a better way is to identify a trend, and buy all the credible efforts in that trend.

For example, let’s say you identifies searching the Internet would be huge. You buy every search engine. Google was the 21st search engine to raise money. It did not matter what happened to your other search engine investments if you got Google. They were all rounding errors.

Certainly. I think you're articulating the wisdom of indexing. Those that don't possess the innate ability to predict the future, invest in the market.