Len Kiefer  

@lenkiefer

Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac. I help people understand the economy, housing, mortgage markets.

Falls Church, Virginia
lenkiefer.com
Joined December 2014
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    20 Apr 2020

    I have made a place to share some favorite data visualizations. Will update and add more as we go

    9 replies 30 retweets 158 likes
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  2. 2 hours ago

    in the future interest rates are going up, but in the past they mostly just go down

    forecasting is hard US 10-year treasury yields vs 4 quarter ahead median forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters
    3 replies 5 retweets 21 likes
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  3. 6 hours ago

    ahh yeah, after cross posting above chart on another platform, raking in the social influence points

    text image: "people noticed your post"
    1 reply 2 likes
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  4. 6 hours ago

    all in one chart if you need a poster to hang up on your wall

    Two panel chart Top panel: Time series chart of US Housing starts through October 2021. Shows that after peaking in March 2021, housing starts have slowed since then, falling below their pre-pandemic level in Feb 2020. Bottom panel: Chart showing year-to-date housing starts through October of each year 2000-2021. Shows 2021 is highest since 2006. also breaks out 1-unit (highest since 2006) and 5+unit starts (2021 above all years 2000-2020)
    3 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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  5. 6 hours ago

    ...but on a year-to-date cumulative basis through October are the highest since 2006, up 17% from last year

    Chart showing year-to-date housing starts through October of each year 2000-2021
    1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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  6. 6 hours ago

    US housing starts slowed since March of this year...

    Time series chart of US Housing starts through October 2021 shows that after peaking in March 2021, housing starts have slowed since then, falling below their pre-pandemic level in Feb 2020.
    1 reply 6 retweets 15 likes
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  7. 7 hours ago

    Mortgage rates back up, 3.1% for 30-year fixed this week

    Chart of US weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rates in Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. average of 3.1 percent for week of 2021-11-18
    2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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  8. Nov 15

    computer, what does this almost random collection of commands do?

    2 likes
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  9. Nov 15

    When my kiddo was little he would scribble randomly on a piece of paper, hand it to me, ask what it spelled. I think my computer feels the same about me when I try to write today

    1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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  10. Nov 10

    if you thought inflation was going to run around 3% over the life of your loan, that's a 0% real interest rate

    4 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
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  11. Nov 10

    CPI inflation over 6%, mortgage rates are under 3%

    time series chart of US weekly average mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 2.98% for the 30yr FRM as of 2021-11-10
    2 replies 7 retweets 16 likes
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  12. Nov 10

    the housing component is likely going to have a lot of inertia, remain high well into 2022

    1 retweet 11 likes
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  13. Nov 10

    CPI housing up 4.5% year-over-year in October, all items 6.2%

    time series chart of 12-month percent change in US consumer price index for all items and housing. Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
    2 replies 11 retweets 28 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    Nov 9

    Hello Twitter friends! Introducing AREUEA, the American Real Estate & Urban Economics Association. We're a membership organization for researchers who study real estate & cities. Follow us for info on conferences, Real Estate Economics journal, & more!

    2 replies 39 retweets 113 likes
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  15. Nov 9

    candy stockpiles thinning out, me the opposite

    1 reply 6 likes
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  16. Nov 9

    also made a chart of the distribution of rates by state vs nationwide R code up here:

    distribution of origination interest rate for outstanding mortgages data source: NMDB
    4 likes
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  17. Nov 9

    ...for the southern states and WV high average interest rates is most likely driven by low loan balances, which reduce the incentive to refinance even if rates drop loan balances are not low in NY, rather it's most likely driven by high closing costs which make refi uneconomical

    1 reply 4 likes
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  18. Nov 9

    Per FHFA National Mortgage Database data the average contract interest rate at origination for residential mortgages active as of June 30, 2021 was 4% But it was 4.3% or higher in AL, NY, LA, MS, WV one of these states is not like the other

    Contract interest rate at origination for residential mortgages active as of June 30, 2021 Data source: National Mortgage Database
    2 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
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  19. Nov 8

    used this trick I picked up from to download excel workbook from web and shoot directly into R session

    NY Fed inflation expectations dropped today. here's the code to download and chart from the website
    5 likes
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  20. Nov 8

    made some related charts here

    distribution of origination interest rate for outstanding mortgages data source: NMDB
    2 replies 5 retweets 15 likes
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  21. Retweeted
    Nov 8

    A good day for a rural research symposium

    1 retweet 6 likes
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