And the capper: If you win, it could ruin your life. (See article linked at the top of the thread.)
Follow
Len Burman
@lenburman
Father, grandfather, cofounder at . Paul Volcker Professor emeritus at . I cycle, swim, cook, and sing. I disclaim!
Len Burman’s Tweets
8) Yeah, there are also smaller prizes, but even on one of the best days in the Mega Millions history, it's a bad investment. Also, you're not going to win the big prize: THE ODDS OF WINNING ARE LESS THAN 1 IN 300 MILLION. 9) Plus, lotteries are really regressive taxes. 5/5
2
Show this thread
That means the after-tax payoff is around 55% of $600 million or $330 million, or less, if you have the winning ticket. So under the best of circumstances, you spend $2 for a lottery ticket with an expected after-tax Mega Millions payoff of about $1.10 or less. 4/
1
1
1
Show this thread
6) A ticket costs $2. So the expected net pre-tax return less than ZERO (again considering that there could be multiple winners). 7) But lottery winnings are taxable, at rates of around 45% if you live in a state with an income tax. 3/
1
Show this thread
3) There can be more than one winner, which means you could win only $300 or $200 million (or less). 4) The odds of winning are about 1 in 300 million. 5) That means the expected lump-sum payoff $2 (600 million/300 million) or less if there are multiple winners. 2/
1
Show this thread
The Mega Millions lottery payoff is really big. It's still a bad deal after taxes. 1) The $1 billion payoff is paid over many years. 2) The lump-sum value is about $600 million if only one ticket has the winning numbers. 1/
1
2
2
Show this thread
Topics to follow
Sign up to get Tweets about the Topics you follow in your Home timeline.
Carousel
He apparently never looked for the Fountain of Youth, which is kind of disappointing. (See smithsonianmag.com/history/ponce-.) I like the idea of the team that needs a miracle to reverse its shocking decline recruiting the namesake of the seeker of the ultimate miracle cure.
1
1
Show this thread
Juan Ponce de Leon was deposed as governor of Puerto Rico, offered the island of Bimini (in what is now the Bahamas) as a consolation prize. He got lost and ended up in St. Augustine where he stayed until his death.
1
Show this thread
The have signed Ponce de Leon. (He’s a mediocre pitcher released by the St. Louis Cardinals. He’ll fit right in.) However, it’s fun to think of his namesake, the original Florida man.
2
8
Show this thread
Florida’s gauntlet for convicted felons who want to take advantage of voting rights granted by voters. This is truly odious.
Quote Tweet
New for @ProPublica: Ten Florida men are being charged with voter fraud after signing up to vote or casting a ballot in the 2020 election. They didn’t know a state law passed in 2019 made them ineligible.
propublica.org/article/florid
1
7
. I replied to an email from colleague, not realizing it would go to noreply@box.com. This meant we might have missed a deadline. Please set up that mailbox to send an autoreply warning to the sender that their message was in a black hole.
1
1
The Nats have let Harper, Rendon, and Turner walk. If they trade Soto (who’s one of the few reasons I still follow the team) without doing everything they can to keep him, that’d be a real slap at the fans.
1
2
. Watch decided I was very fast. Also very drunk. ~1 mile open waterswim became 2 miles with lots of twists and turns. (For the record, I was swimming in relatively smooth arcs at a leisurely pace. Weird.)
2
5
Watching Jan 6 hearing, I’m struck by the brave and principled GOP officials. Were it not for the legions of wackadoodle seditionists, who seem to far outnumber the defenders of the Constitution, it’d be cause for optimism about the future of our Republic. #Jan6Hearings
1
1
7
David Axelrod takes on demon gin. 😀
Quote Tweet
Which of these overwhelming popular gin safety provisions do you believe will become law? twitter.com/atrupar/status…
I’m old, somewhat resistant to change, and I like QR menus. This article explains why. Plus paper menus that have been handled by lots of other people while eating are kind of gross.
Quote Tweet
Are you pro or anti-QR code menus? @RobertGebelhoff argues in favor of them. wapo.st/3Hpu7Lw
4
7
This analysis would be great fodder for a statistics course. Discuss: do gun lobby contributions change legislators' voting decisions or do they just reward pro-gun legislators (perhaps because they want to keep them in office)? #correlationnotcausation
1
Andy Warhol turned Campbell's Soup cans into art. I used a Progresso can to fix a broken patio lamp. Maybe I could turn it into an NFT and get rich!
5
1
24
This might make populists feel better, but it won't help stem inflation and could keep gas prices high longer than they would otherwise be. Why not instead eliminate unwarranted fossil fuel subsidies?
5
More generally, recession predictions based on historical antecedents are highly uncertain because relevant sample size is small. There are 11 recessions in that chart. And a lot of important things about the economy and economic policy management have changed. 2/2
2
Show this thread
Larry's basic point that high inflation and low unemployment tends to augur a recession is right, but there have been zero episodes since 1948 when inflation has been over 8% and unemployment below 4%. I.e., his sample size is zero. 1/
Quote Tweet
And here's Larry Summers boldly calling a recession:
I think, when inflation is as high as it is right now, and unemployment is as low as it is right now, it's almost always been followed within two years by inflation, by recession.
2
1
2
Show this thread
Looks like Syracuse Economics will need some part time or temporary instructors for the fall, with some opportunities for longer contracts. Anyone interested - email me. I’m the chair of the economics dept.
4
57
141
PS, It's apparently unclear whether the deferred crypto compensation will be considered capital gain. An earlier draft of the legislation said it would be ordinary income, but the current version is mute on the question. See the Tax Notes article referred to in the blog post.
1
1
Show this thread
This is terrible tax policy. Mining crypto wastes a huge amount of energy. Subsidizing it through giant tax breaks makes no sense, as explains clearly. 2/2
4
1
18
Show this thread
New bill from and would allow deferral of tax until sale for cryptocurrency miners and stakers. If it's ever taxed, it would be at reduced capital gains rates, and tax could be avoided altogether by holding until death or donating to charity. 1/
Quote Tweet
A cryptocurrency bill out today from Sens. Lummis and Gillibrand would create tax avoidance opportunities for crypto firms that don't appear to need special tax treatment. tpc.io/3O1G3Fg
1
2
5
Show this thread
PS, Hecker's herculean workload wore him out. His pitching stats fell off steadily after his epic season; he was done by 1890. Hecker could also hit. His 0.341 average in 1886 won him the batting title. baseball-reference.com/players/h/heck 4/4
1
Show this thread
Adon can throw 97mph. But he might be better off tossing under-hand. If he keeps up his current 6.95 ERA and loses 20+ games, he will set a record for pitching futility (and Davey Martinez will have set one for managerial forbearance). 3/4
1
Show this thread
Most, however, have won much more than 9% of their games. In 1884, Guy Hecker won 52 games while losing 20. He started 73 games and completed 72 of them! 1.80 ERA. To be fair, Hecker probably pitched on a mound much closer to the batter and he likely threw under-handed. 2/4
2
1
Show this thread
Joan Adon of the is already 1-10 and it's only June 7. At this pace, he could be 3-30 for the year. While Adon is bad by modern standards, a lot of pitchers have lost 20 or more games in a season. baseball-reference.com/friv/20gameLos 1/4
1
1
Show this thread
IRS funding is grossly inadequate, but it's not the only culprit. The tax law is needlessly complex, which reflects design choices made by Congress. Simplifying the code could make tax compliance much easier.
Quote Tweet
Taxpayers shouldn’t have to jump through hoops just to file their taxes. I asked @SecYellen what we can do to make tax filing season easier for the American people.
Her answer? Congress needs to give the IRS the funding it needs to succeed.
0:16
839 views
1
5
I was sure this brilliant tweet would prompt reform of the NBA’s officiating. And yet, not a single like or retweet. It’s almost as if nobody is following me for my basketball insights. 😀
Quote Tweet
From @CandaceDBuckner, @nba refs ignore the rules to avoid ejecting a player who has one T. Thus, an already penalized player faces LESS consequence for thuggish behavior than his more compliant teammates. Talk about bad incentives. washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/06
2
5
From , refs ignore the rules to avoid ejecting a player who has one T. Thus, an already penalized player faces LESS consequence for thuggish behavior than his more compliant teammates. Talk about bad incentives.
2
2
Day 1 of 7: Intros and Women of #DataPrivacy
Normally when people ask, "What do you do?" They usually mean, "What is your job?" However, I remember one of my mentors, , saying that a more interesting response should be your hobbies. My first thread will be on that. 1/n
1
8
23
Show this thread
Excellent thread and attached NY Times article on inflation measurement.
Quote Tweet
Inflation measurement has changed over time makes today's number look lower than it would if it used the pre-1983 methodology (and, as @stuartathompson talk about here, old data weren't restated to allow for apples-to-apples comparison over time)
nytimes.com/2022/05/24/tec
nytimes.com/2022/05/24/tecShow this thread
1
5
Second-best policy is a longstanding challenge.
Quote Tweet
"Thomas Jefferson explained this to his secretary of the treasury: “What is good in this case cannot be effected. We have, therefore, only to find out what will be least bad.” p. 256 nytimes.com/2022/06/05/bus
Show this thread
1
The economic ball and chain of racial wealth disparities after emancipation would have taken hundreds of years to disappear under the best of circumstances. Then there was Jim Crow, redlining, and pervasive racism. Remarkable historical data from and colleagues.
Quote Tweet
We’re pleased to announce the release of our new WP "Wealth of two nations: The US racial wealth gap, 1860-2020," in which we provide the first continuous time series of white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios over the past 160 years. 1/10
nber.org/papers/w30101
Show this thread
1
15
28
Strasburg rehab start in AAA Rochester, which is packed. Stras threw 6 one-hit innings, 84 pitches, no hits until one weak liner in the 6th inning. Good movement on fastball and curve. Velocity a bit off (90), but he kept pitches down.
2
8
Steven Strasburg’s return to the majors can’t happen quickly enough.
2
2
I’d still like to ban military style weapons, but it isn’t going to happen and wouldn’t address most of the gun deaths in the U.S. Most are from suicide and daily gun violence that terrorizes disadvantaged communities. Mass shootings, while horrific, account for a tiny fraction.
2
Show this thread