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Sweden just passed France at 443 deaths per million. Next up, Italy and Spain (should be reached towards the end of June)

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David Steadson #NAFO

Rolling 7 day average now over 50 for all but the last day of week 21. Looking very much like a new plateau of around 50 deaths/day.

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False and baseless: "Sweden just passed France at 443 deaths per million. Next up, Italy and Spain (should be reached towards the end of June) "

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Got darn close in that timeframe though, plateaued just a tad too early

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The core prediction was that without lockdowns and school closures, Sweden was headed for a catastrophe (many deaths). This prediction has been thoroughly invalidated. Sweden all-cause mortality per 100k people. It was second lowest on record in 2020-2021 :

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Why pick all-cause mortality instead of Covid deaths?

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The overwhelming majority of covid deaths are in the very old (older than life expectancy) with comorbidities. This means that "death by covid" is ill-defined: it gets counted differently. Death rate is more reliable. Hard to miscount deaths or disagree on the meaning.

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Excess mortality is trickier because it requires a baseline. Euromomo is one way to do it.

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A comparison of the excess mortality between Germany and Sweden is interesting. Germany is doing very poorly according to the Euromomo models.

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Observe how Germany had excess mortality in 2018 comparable with Sweden in 2020.

EUROMOMO EuroMOMO Bulletin, Week 4, 2023

EuroMOMO pooled estimates show decreasing elevated mortality This week’s pooled EuroMOMO estimates of all-cause mortality for the…

12:18 AM · Nov 10, 2022