Quick quiz for journos covering health care. CBO's Obama score said 51 million Americans would be on Medicaid by 2017. They were off by:
Isn't that because it was written to be mandatory before SCOTUS intervention?
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No!!! CBO vastly underestimated Medicaid expansion. If anything SCOTUS lowered the CBO's error rate!!!
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No, it's just false. There were 51M covered by Medicaid in 2009. https://www.statista.com/statistics/245347/total-medicaid-enrollment-since-1966/ …
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not according to CBO. see table 4: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/111th-congress-2009-2010/costestimate/amendreconprop.pdf …
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Check the CMS. How could any professional not know how large total Medicaid enrolment was in 2009? It was over 50M even then!
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I'm comparing apples to apples CBO numbers. You are mixing CMS numbers from 2010 with CBO numbers today.
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Current total enrolment is around 74M. It was around 50M in 2009, and 54M in summer 2013.
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Yes that is the CMS number. Current CBO report say 69 million https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/53091-fshic.pdf … you need to compare CBO to CBO
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I repeat: the CBO changed the way they categorized disabled and elderly a couple years ago. You work for Congress - ask them!
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then why does the current CBO report from today not match your CMS number from today?
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No, he's just wrong. The exact report from 2010 that he cites projected Medicaid growth of 17M between 2013 and 2017. (38-3=35, 35+17=52)pic.twitter.com/2yOdyOu7Nt
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To complete the thought, average Medicaid enrollment including ALL categories (disabled, elderly etc) was ~57M in 2013. Now ~75M. 18M growthpic.twitter.com/sfJdTuqHxL
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what does 2013 have to do with this? In 2010 CMS had 50 million. Now 74 million. that is 24 million more on Medicaid. CBO predicted 16.
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Medicaid expansion was in 2014, hence the big jump that year. And 50M for 2010 is low - there were 64M in 2009, including elderly & disabledpic.twitter.com/b04zCl0UWX
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Enrolment figures before 2013 are bit wonky, even from CMS - it's not always clear who is being included. But ACA growth kicked in 2014.
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The 2010 table is clearer. ~55M average enrollment in 2010. It's also clear that CBO's 40M excluded blind/disabled (and elderly, of course)pic.twitter.com/ja2NMvc1AA
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