Lauri Myllyvirta

Which numbers for coal, oil, gas and non-fossil? The total energy growth in the communique usually best matches the total energy consumption table in the CESY (usually table 4-1). That includes everything, including refined products, coke, blast furnace gas, etc.

They probably can't have detail on all of that in the preliminary numbers in the statistical communique, but comparing to table 4-1 in the energy statistical yearbook it looks like that's what they try to estimate. And they do have numbers on coke production and trade at least.

The Statistical Yearbook and Energy Statistical Yearbook time series are entirely separate. The Communique feeds into the Stat Ybook not Energy Stat Ybook.

Well, not entirely separate. I mean is the CSY numbers are not revised when the more detailed CESY numbers come out 1-2 yrs later. In general, things aren't revised backwards - rather, the more detailed statistics are tailored to fit the headline numbers published earlier!

Anyway I wish I'd tweeted a range of 2.0-2.7% rather than put these things into a P.S.

Yes, the table I'm referring to appears in both, and are identical for all but the last year (CSY has the stat comm number, CESY has a revised number). What I said in the previous posts is based on comparisons across multiple years.

I see, thanks. To square the numbers, assuming coal is 0.7% and the rest of the discrepancy is oil, oil consumption in total energy consumption should have grown 4.4% instead of 6.8%, does that seem plausible?

Thanks, that helps! In short: maybe. Oil product imports accounted for ~11% of oil energy consumption in 2017, and slumped by 8.7% in 2019, so that could be ~1 p.p. of the 2.4 p.p. gap.