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laurabronner's profile
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
@laurabronner

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Laura Bronner

@laurabronner

Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 🇦🇹 in 🇺🇸, via 🇬🇧 | she/her

New York, NY
laurabronner.com
Joined August 2015

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    1. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 30

      Laura Bronner Retweeted Nate Silver

      If reported COVID deaths turn out to be capturing a changing fraction of *actual* COVID deaths, that makes it much harder both to model deaths accurately (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/ …) and also to infer anything from a chart of number of deaths in real time (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-chart-isnt-going-to-tell-you-when-the-pandemic-peaked/ …)https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1266764274992586752 …

      Laura Bronner added,

      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      A lot of models try to infer the # of cases from the # of deaths and I wonder what this does to those. If we've gone from capturing only say 30% of actual COVID deaths in mid-March to 60-70% at the peak to 80-90% now, that could mess with your estimates of R and other parameters.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
      Show this thread
      Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 30

      Laura Bronner Retweeted Lenny Bronner

      Also, this furthers the question of what it really means for models to be accurately predicting a number that is (a) an undercount and (b) a *changing* undercount.https://twitter.com/lbronner/status/1262222395550715905 …

      Laura Bronner added,

      Lenny BronnerVerified account @lbronner
      Given how much error (underreporting + bureaucratic factors + political incentives + ??? + stochasticity) there is in the observed death numbers, it's kind of unclear what value there is in perfectly predicting those numbers.
      Show this thread
      11:20 AM - 30 May 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • andrea bronner Oli Perkins Lenny Bronner
      0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes

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