Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?
    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
laurabronner's profile
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
@laurabronner

Tweets

Laura Bronner

@laurabronner

Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 🇦🇹 in 🇺🇸, via 🇬🇧 | she/her

New York, NY
laurabronner.com
Joined August 2015

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list

    Under 100 characters, optional
    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 30

    Laura Bronner Retweeted Nate Silver

    If reported COVID deaths turn out to be capturing a changing fraction of *actual* COVID deaths, that makes it much harder both to model deaths accurately (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/ …) and also to infer anything from a chart of number of deaths in real time (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-chart-isnt-going-to-tell-you-when-the-pandemic-peaked/ …)https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1266764274992586752 …

    Laura Bronner added,

    Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
    A lot of models try to infer the # of cases from the # of deaths and I wonder what this does to those. If we've gone from capturing only say 30% of actual COVID deaths in mid-March to 60-70% at the peak to 80-90% now, that could mess with your estimates of R and other parameters.
    Show this thread
    11:20 AM - 30 May 2020
    • 1 Retweet
    • 5 Likes
    • Schnitzel & Pie andrea bronner Drew Dimmery Lenny Bronner Tyler Smith
    1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
      1. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 30

        Laura Bronner Retweeted Lenny Bronner

        Also, this furthers the question of what it really means for models to be accurately predicting a number that is (a) an undercount and (b) a *changing* undercount.https://twitter.com/lbronner/status/1262222395550715905 …

        Laura Bronner added,

        Lenny BronnerVerified account @lbronner
        Given how much error (underreporting + bureaucratic factors + political incentives + ??? + stochasticity) there is in the observed death numbers, it's kind of unclear what value there is in perfectly predicting those numbers.
        Show this thread
        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2020 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Cookies
      • Ads info