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laurabronner's profile
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
@laurabronner

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Laura Bronner

@laurabronner

Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 🇦🇹 in 🇺🇸, via 🇬🇧 | she/her

New York, NY
laurabronner.com
Joined August 2015

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    Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 5

    Laura Bronner Retweeted CEA

    Everyone on even-remotely-stats-adjacent Twitter is appalled at this. I'm going to try to explain why in a thread. 1) Fitting models here is hard because the data is super noisy & changes direction every few days.https://twitter.com/WhiteHouseCEA/status/1257680258364555264 …

    Laura Bronner added,

    CEAVerified account @WhiteHouseCEA
    To better visualize observed data, we also continually update a curve-fitting exercise to summarize COVID-19's observed trajectory. Particularly with irregular data, curve fitting can improve data visualization. As shown, IHME's mortality curves have matched the data fairly well. pic.twitter.com/NtJcOdA98R
    Show this thread
    11:48 AM - 5 May 2020
    • 83 Retweets
    • 235 Likes
    • Shy Aberman 🏴‍☠️ |Ma|T| Laveaga | Marie-José Kolly Alex Howard Alex Engler M. Zukoski Brian Klemencic Chu ross langley
    6 replies 83 retweets 235 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 5

        2) If you have really noisy data, you could estimate a model to fit it closely, but that's likely to be overfitting (e.g. here, we don't *actually* think deaths are fluctuating so much). So instead, you have to make assumptions about what the data looks like absent the noise.

        1 reply 2 retweets 40 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 5

        But those assumptions are important to get a model that fits well out of sample. So this should be guided based on your epidemiological knowledge, your understanding of how the data was collected, and analyses of model fit.

        2 replies 2 retweets 41 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 5

        3) Now, the "cubic fit" part: a) you're assuming a very particular functional form. And b) using polynomials to extrapolate is particularly iffy because the edge behavior of polynomials is notoriously finicky (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runge%27s_phenomenon …). This is a bad way to fit a flexible model.

        3 replies 2 retweets 60 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 5

        4) This *could* be something more complicated like a gam with a cubic spline, but all we have to go on is the phrase "cubic fit", so... who knows? And it may well have similar issues.

        2 replies 2 retweets 31 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner May 5

        5) I think a lot of the frustration here is that this hugely policy-relevant model seems like it might be based on something my third stats class told me not to do, and we don't have the information necessary to evaluate it.

        3 replies 11 retweets 119 likes
        Show this thread
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. (((Roger Moore)))‏ @VATVSLPR May 5
        Replying to @laurabronner

        Even absent the modeling problems you point out, the final answer doesn't pass the sniff test. It is making predictions that make no sense with the observed behavior of this (or any other) epidemic. /1

        1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
      3. (((Roger Moore)))‏ @VATVSLPR May 5
        Replying to @VATVSLPR @laurabronner

        No other country in the world has seen their death rate drop off to near zero in a couple of weeks. Even places that went into much stricter lockdowns than anything we've done in the US took well over a month to get things under any semblance of control. /2

        2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Yilmaz Ak‏ @educak May 5
        Replying to @laurabronner @SibelOktay

        And the number of deaths went up again and is over 2,300 today, after a two-day drop. This has been going on for some time.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Sibel Oktay‏ @SibelOktay May 5
        Replying to @educak @laurabronner

        Exactly.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. dbeacom‏ @danbeacom May 5
        Replying to @laurabronner

        Every last part can be described on an exponential equation, even when the growth or extinction are very slow. Please look me up on LinkedIn. I do microbial growth equations for a living and have dealt with bacterial virus in production scale tanks (300,000 gallons)

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Mask It or Casket‏ @ArtusBunnyBane May 5
        Replying to @danbeacom @laurabronner

        is it reasonable to equate microbial growth in a controlled (or semi-controlled or wild) environment with infection transfer and infection spread? there will be more variables w/ disease models, right? If so, won't that effect the predicted rates?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. 1 more reply

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