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laurabronner's profile
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
@laurabronner

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Laura Bronner

@laurabronner

Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 🇦🇹 in 🇺🇸, via 🇬🇧 | she/her

New York, NY
laurabronner.com
Joined August 2015

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    1. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Apr 21

      This analysis is really frustrating, and not something I would signed off on at @FiveThirtyEight. Let me try and go through some of the reasons why.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/us/politics/wisconsin-mail-voting.html …

      2 replies 64 retweets 173 likes
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    2. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Apr 21

      1. The framing: one election doesn't "upend" a whole host of much better evidence showing that vote-by-mail tends to have neutral effects, most recently e.g. http://www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/Thompson_et_al_VBM.pdf … by @danmthomp and others. *Especially* an election held under such unusual circumstances.

      1 reply 5 retweets 39 likes
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    3. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Apr 21

      2. The article says that none of the prior studies have compared in-person and mail results. But that's not actually interesting, since people who vote by mail differ from those who vote in person. That's especially true in this case...

      1 reply 3 retweets 21 likes
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    4. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Apr 21

      since we know that how seriously people take COVID-19 differs by party (e.g. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/31/21199271/coronavirus-in-us-trump-republicans-democrats-survey-epistemic-crisis …). So showing that mail votes are more Democratic in an environment in which staying home is partisan doesn't tell you anything about what more widespread VBM would do.

      1 reply 4 retweets 32 likes
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    5. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Apr 21

      The parties also had different strategies: Democrats called for their voters to vote by mail (see e.g. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/01/wisconsin-dems-support-postponing-spring-elections-160318 …), while Republicans didn't. It would be weird if we *didn't* see a difference in how the different parties voted.

      1 reply 5 retweets 31 likes
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    6. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Apr 21

      And Democrats and Republicans live in different areas (even within municipalities, see e.g. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-democrats-cities/ …), so even if they did take COVID similarly seriously, Democrats might be likelier to want to vote by mail than Republicans.

      2 replies 3 retweets 15 likes
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      Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Apr 21

      3. The two parties had different incentives to turn out. (I don't want to overplay this, since the primary wasn't that competitive anymore. But the composition of the electorate still differs from a general election in which both parties have an incentive to turn out.)

      1:32 PM - 21 Apr 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 13 Likes
      • Melody Crowder-Meyer Jake M. Grumbach Drew Barnes Happy Voter 🐝 Saumya Narechania Alex Tausanovitch Basic andrea bronner Lenny Bronner
      0 replies 3 retweets 13 likes

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