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This analysis is really frustrating, and not something I would signed off on at @FiveThirtyEight. Let me try and go through some of the reasons why.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/us/politics/wisconsin-mail-voting.html …
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The parties also had different strategies: Democrats called for their voters to vote by mail (see e.g. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/01/wisconsin-dems-support-postponing-spring-elections-160318 …), while Republicans didn't. It would be weird if we *didn't* see a difference in how the different parties voted.
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And Democrats and Republicans live in different areas (even within municipalities, see e.g. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-democrats-cities/ …), so even if they did take COVID similarly seriously, Democrats might be likelier to want to vote by mail than Republicans.
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3. The two parties had different incentives to turn out. (I don't want to overplay this, since the primary wasn't that competitive anymore. But the composition of the electorate still differs from a general election in which both parties have an incentive to turn out.)
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