Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 
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What do experts think will happen with the coronavirus pandemic? @reichlab and @tomcm39 asked multiple infectious disease researchers a bunch of questions, including how many deaths they think will happen in 2020. The range of answers is... large.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/ …pic.twitter.com/DGNzei4fpy
They agree that the true number of cases is larger than what's currently reported, but they disagree on what percentage we know about. And they have vastly differing estimates of the number of cases we'll have by Sunday.pic.twitter.com/vyQLPL3l7H
liking the humility of the person who was like "between 5000 and 6000000"
That one is a former meteorologist
No wonder we’re confused. Thanks
These estimates are way off. Just by using simple math and logic, there will be 250,000+ known cases by March 29 in the US. Also, we almost certainly have over 1 million people infected TODAY in the US.
Good point. I bet those experts never thought of using math and logic.
"The consensus forecast generated by the individual responses indicates that we should expect roughly 19,000 reported cases by March 29." But JHU says we now have 22,177. Should I find this worrying?https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
May I obtain a table of your experts’ estimates someplace? Thanks for directing me if possible.
CNN is quoting professors from Stanford talking up “much lower” fatality rate. But if the number of actual cases is much higher... Can you direct me to experts’ estimates of current and projected cases? Probably in front of my face like mayonnaise at the market. Thank you.
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