Laura Bronner on Twitter: "These are incomplete results (67% reporting), but so far, not just is Sanders underperforming his 2016 vote share -- but he's underperforming it by *more* in the places in which he did particularly well in 2016. https://t.co/I6daphr2Rr… https://t.co/mVK7Mbw5yU"

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‏ @laurabronner

These are incomplete results (67% reporting), but so far, not just is Sanders underperforming his 2016 vote share -- but he's underperforming it by *more* in the places in which he did particularly well in 2016. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-hampshire-primary-2020/ …pic.twitter.com/mGQHl5UBmE

7:16 PM - 11 Feb 2020

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28 replies 58 retweets 128 likes

1. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Feb 11
  Thanks to everyone who suggested weighting by township vote totals! I did that -- and have more data now -- and the chart looks like this:pic.twitter.com/6pCGJBI1rR
  
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1. plata‏ @Atomicno47 Feb 11
  Replying to @laurabronner @FiveThirtyEight
  
  This is an odd take considering the number of candidates in the race versus 2016.
  
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1. Ulrich Aꜩ‏ @ulrichatz Feb 11
  Replying to @laurabronner
  
  Regression to the mean, anyone?
  
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1. Alexander Agadjanian‏ @A_agadjanian Feb 11
  Replying to @laurabronner
  
  Oh wow. One question: are you using township vote totals as weights in creating that regression line? I wonder how much small towns are driving this relationship
  
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1. Noah Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah Feb 11
  Replying to @laurabronner
  
  Love the chart! Building on statewide vs. town share, it really looks like this is Warren strength along the VT border
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1. Simon D. Schuster‏ @Simon_Schuster Feb 11
  Replying to @laurabronner
  
  The results provide an interesting look at the difference between a binary choice for voters and the "choose your flavor" type of field this time around, I think, especially if you can pare down the anti-vote directed at Clinton. This is a more realistic look at his base.
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