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laurabronner's profile
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
@laurabronner

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Laura Bronner

@laurabronner

Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 🇦🇹 in 🇺🇸, via 🇬🇧 | she/her

New York, NY
laurabronner.com
Joined August 2015

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    1. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Feb 5

      The primary model is back on after Iowa. It's not good news for Biden. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ …pic.twitter.com/8oWspWH2zj

      29 replies 93 retweets 287 likes
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    2. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Feb 5

      And @NateSilver538 with more detail: "The model shows former VP Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates being halved — from 43 % before Iowa to 21 % now. Who gains from Biden’s decline? Well, a little bit of everyone."https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-post-iowa-primary-forecast-is-up-and-bidens-chances-are-down/ …

      3 replies 7 retweets 23 likes
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    3. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Feb 6

      2 things: 1. The model has since updated again: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ … 2. Iowa was weird! The assumptions about the post-Iowa bounce are particularly uncertain. But once new polls come out, the model will replace those assumptions with actual polling data to measure that bounce

      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
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    4. Yvo Greijdanus‏ @yvogre Feb 6
      Replying to @laurabronner @NateSilver538

      Do you update the model once a day, or only after new polls or results come out? In other words: when should we refresh?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner Feb 6
      Replying to @yvogre @NateSilver538

      We update whenever new polls or endorsements come out! So: refresh away! :)

      9:53 AM - 6 Feb 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Yvo Greijdanus Drew Dimmery
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. Yvo Greijdanus‏ @yvogre Feb 6
          Replying to @laurabronner @NateSilver538

          I won’t let the f5-key out of my sight! Keep up the good work!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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