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The primary model is back on after Iowa. It's not good news for Biden. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ …pic.twitter.com/8oWspWH2zj
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And
@NateSilver538 with more detail: "The model shows former VP Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates being halved — from 43 % before Iowa to 21 % now. Who gains from Biden’s decline? Well, a little bit of everyone."https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-post-iowa-primary-forecast-is-up-and-bidens-chances-are-down/ …Show this thread
2 things: 1. The model has since updated again: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ … 2. Iowa was weird! The assumptions about the post-Iowa bounce are particularly uncertain. But once new polls come out, the model will replace those assumptions with actual polling data to measure that bounce
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Do you update the model once a day, or only after new polls or results come out? In other words: when should we refresh?
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We update whenever new polls or endorsements come out! So: refresh away! :)
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