Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 
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The primary model is back on after Iowa. It's not good news for Biden. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ …pic.twitter.com/8oWspWH2zj
And @NateSilver538 with more detail:
"The model shows former VP Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates being halved — from 43 % before Iowa to 21 % now.
Who gains from Biden’s decline? Well, a little bit of everyone."https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-post-iowa-primary-forecast-is-up-and-bidens-chances-are-down/ …
2 things: 1. The model has since updated again: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/ … 2. Iowa was weird! The assumptions about the post-Iowa bounce are particularly uncertain. But once new polls come out, the model will replace those assumptions with actual polling data to measure that bounce
So it comes down to Sanders v No One. Apt
This is nuts: Clinton lost IA and NH in the primary. Biden will do well in SC and NV, and then we are on to Super Tuesday.
Hillary won IA in 2016.
I severely doubt this model lol
That is one YOOOGE leap for @BernieSanders.
For those not familiar with this model, "no one" means brokered convention
I think model is highly flawed - has Biden losing SC e.g. But it nevertheless says Biden twice as likely as Warren to get delegate plurality & 3 times as likely as Buttigieg (with Klobuchar & Bloomberg effectively having no chance). But it's only "not good news for Biden." ok.
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