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While of course a lot can happen between now and December 12th, it's worth noting that 2017 was sort of an outlier in terms of just how much changed in the pre-election period.pic.twitter.com/eWvK9D3H2G
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The error (comparing the parties' polling average 33 days before the election, i.e. today, to their election results) was particularly high -- Labour was 13.5 percentage points off their eventual result.pic.twitter.com/OidHKIaUZ4
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I'm always on the side of emphasizing uncertainty! But also, there's always a tendency to overlearn the lessons from the last election -- and in this case, the last election seems like it was a bit of an outlier. Data fromhttps://liberalarts.utexas.edu/government/faculty/cw26629#datasets-on-polls-and-the-timeline-of-elections …
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Interesting -- yeah, that could be an indicator of a swing this time as well.
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Just curious- any data on how the dont knows changed?
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Agree that no change is one highly probable outcome. I feel that we can’t compare the past. New labour/toxic Tory party era is different. I feel that a binary Brexit element means people unenthusiastic about labour may hold their nose. Bxp may move to tories for same reason.
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What is unique as far as I’m aware is the solid lack of any real voter shift between labour and Tories. Both going for core vote as hoping another 5-10% hold their nose away from libs and bxp. This seem volatile. Another element is the closeness of each election.
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