Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 
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While of course a lot can happen between now and December 12th, it's worth noting that 2017 was sort of an outlier in terms of just how much changed in the pre-election period.pic.twitter.com/eWvK9D3H2G
The error (comparing the parties' polling average 33 days before the election, i.e. today, to their election results) was particularly high -- Labour was 13.5 percentage points off their eventual result.pic.twitter.com/OidHKIaUZ4
I'm always on the side of emphasizing uncertainty! But also, there's always a tendency to overlearn the lessons from the last election -- and in this case, the last election seems like it was a bit of an outlier. Data fromhttps://liberalarts.utexas.edu/government/faculty/cw26629#datasets-on-polls-and-the-timeline-of-elections …
May I ask what you used for the visualization here? R? Love the legibility.
Yep! ggplot in R. Thanks!
Other psephologists have mentioned 2017 and 2019 have a similarly unusual amount of undecided voters at this point in the campaign. Do you have a comparison for that?
Of course; it's a bit like when Liverpool came back from 3-0 down to beat AC Milan. Every time a major team was 3-0 down at half time that fightback was mentioned and always will be. But it never happened and won't happen again (probably).
Excellent. Always god to get a @FiveThirtyEight perspective over here. More please! @NateSilver538
Interesting & instructive, but of all elections, might 2019 be even more unpredictable given the headline single issue that divides the main parties (except LibDems)? Only time will tell. I know I’ve never hesitated to vote (for whichever party) but have no idea this time.
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