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laurabronner's profile
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
@laurabronner

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Laura Bronner

@laurabronner

Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 🇦🇹 in 🇺🇸, via 🇬🇧 | she/her

New York, NY
laurabronner.com
Joined August 2015

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    1. Ariel Edwards-Levy‏Verified account @aedwardslevy 31 Oct 2019

      Ariel Edwards-Levy Retweeted Laura Bronner

      The house effects issue here is interesting and probably worth further study: there seems to be a persistent gap between what some pollsters and others are making of this race, and it doesn't cut along any particularly obvious mode/sample frame/etc. lines.https://twitter.com/laurabronner/status/1189893309969436672 …

      Ariel Edwards-Levy added,

      Laura Bronner @laurabronner
      Last week, a CNN poll had Biden 15 points ahead of Warren, while a Quinnipiac poll had Warren leading by 7. Is this a sign that the polls are too far apart? In short: No, once we account for house effects, the spread is within a normal range. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-up-15-warren-up-7-are-primary-polls-too-far-apart/ …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 4 retweets 8 likes
      Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner 31 Oct 2019
      Replying to @aedwardslevy

      Yeah -- I did a little exploring, but at first glance I didn't find much evidence of anything systematic driving the house effects (mode, weighting by education, etc.)

      9:22 AM - 31 Oct 2019
      • 1 Like
      • Ariel Edwards-Levy
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Ariel Edwards-Levy‏Verified account @aedwardslevy 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @laurabronner

          Same!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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