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laurabronner's profile
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
Laura Bronner
@laurabronner

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Laura Bronner

@laurabronner

Quantitative Editor, @FiveThirtyEight | PhD, @LSEGovernment | 🇦🇹 in 🇺🇸, via 🇬🇧 | she/her

New York, NY
laurabronner.com
Joined August 2015

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    1. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner 31 Oct 2019

      Last week, a CNN poll had Biden 15 points ahead of Warren, while a Quinnipiac poll had Warren leading by 7. Is this a sign that the polls are too far apart? In short: No, once we account for house effects, the spread is within a normal range.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-up-15-warren-up-7-are-primary-polls-too-far-apart/ …

      20 replies 33 retweets 161 likes
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    2. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner 31 Oct 2019

      I ran some simulations to see whether the spread in the polls in October is larger than we'd expect. And based on sampling variability alone, it is -- way larger. The standard deviation of Biden's polls, for example, should be around 2, but it's actually 3.5.pic.twitter.com/aZ6YK2bMi5

      2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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    3. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner 31 Oct 2019

      But sampling variability isn't the only thing driving the spread. Once we account for house effects, the observed standard deviation is within the range we'd expect. And house effects are healthy! We *want* different pollsters making independent methodological decisions.pic.twitter.com/4JKhJgjl3s

      2 replies 1 retweet 18 likes
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    4. Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner 31 Oct 2019

      What about the CNN and Quinnipiac polls? Turns out, once you account for house effects, they're exactly the kinds of normal outliers you'd expect to see in this kind of distribution of polls.pic.twitter.com/1BLyW2TURs

      6 replies 9 retweets 35 likes
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      Laura Bronner‏ @laurabronner 31 Oct 2019

      Super excited for my first morning story at @FiveThirtyEight! With a ton of thanks to @ellawinthrop and @jazzmyth for the beautiful charts, and @sfrostenson, @CopyCurmudgeon, @DataDhrumil, @NateSilver538, and @micahcohen for everything else!

      6:14 AM - 31 Oct 2019
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      • Ryan Bresnahan Spencer Anderon RedStateBlueState yamiTUCK!!! AAmom🥁✊🏽 Harrison F Roei chay yet another Matt Ariel Edwards-Levy
      4 replies 1 retweet 24 likes
        1. Chris Jennings‏ @cjina2 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @laurabronner @FiveThirtyEight and

          Why isn’t this Tweet about Bernie?!?! 🤬 (I decided to be a Bernie Bro for Halloween! 👻🎃)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Eric Hoffpauir‏ @ehoffp 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @laurabronner @FiveThirtyEight and

          Curious what you make of the variance between the totals for other candidates in the race. Sanders basically gets the same result in both polls, and Buttigieg is the only other candidate with more than 3 pts difference.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Nicholas Bauer, PhD  👨‍🔬 🔬‏ @BioTurboNick 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @laurabronner @FiveThirtyEight and

          Do the different choices the pollsters are making tell us anything? E.g. If a certain demographic turns out more

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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